Costa Dora L, Kahn Matthew E, Roudiez Christopher, Wilson Sven
UCLA Department of Economics, 9272 Bunche Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1477 and NBER.
USC Department of Economics, Los Angeles, CA 90089, and NBER.
Reg Sci Urban Econ. 2018 May;70:289-299. doi: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.09.005. Epub 2018 Oct 11.
We demonstrate the long reach of early social ties in the location decision of individuals and in their older age mortality risk using data on Union Army veterans of the US Civil War (1861-5). We estimate discrete choice migration models to quantify the trade-offs across locations faced by veterans. Veterans were more likely to move to a neighborhood or county where men from their same war company lived and were more likely to move to such areas than to areas where other veterans were located. Veterans also were less likely to move far from their origin and avoided urban immigrant areas and high mortality risk areas. They also avoided areas that opposed the Civil War. This co-location evidence highlights the existence of persistent social networks. Such social networks had long-term consequences: veterans living close to war-time comrades had a 6% lower probability of dying.
我们利用美国内战（1861 - 1865年）联邦军队退伍军人的数据，展示了早期社会关系在个人选址决策及其老年死亡风险方面的深远影响。我们估计离散选择迁移模型，以量化退伍军人在不同地点面临的权衡取舍。退伍军人更有可能搬到来自同一战争连队的人居住的社区或县，并且比起其他退伍军人所在的地区，他们更倾向于搬到这些地方。退伍军人也不太可能搬离他们的原籍地，并且会避开城市移民区和高死亡风险地区。他们还会避开反对内战的地区。这种共居一地的证据凸显了持久社会网络的存在。这样的社会网络产生了长期影响：与战时战友住得近的退伍军人死亡概率降低了6%。
