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估算减少农业空气污染的健康和经济效益。

Estimating health and economic benefits of reductions in air pollution from agriculture.

机构信息

The Cyprus Institute, Energy Environment and Water Research Center, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus.

The Cyprus Institute, Energy Environment and Water Research Center, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2018 May 1;622-623:1304-1316. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.064. Epub 2017 Dec 13.

DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.064
PMID:29890597
Abstract

Agricultural ammonia emissions strongly contribute to fine particulate air pollution (PM) with significant impacts on human health, contributing to mortality. We used model calculated emission scenarios to examine the health and economic benefits accrued by reducing agricultural emissions. We applied the "value of statistical life" metric to monetize the associated health outcomes. Our analysis indicates that a 50% reduction in agricultural emissions could prevent >200 thousand deaths per year in the 59 countries included in our study, notably in Europe, Russia, Turkey, the US, Canada and China, accompanied with economic benefits of many billions US$. In the European Union (EU) mortality could be reduced by 18% with an annual economic benefit of 89 billion US$. A theoretical complete phase-out of agricultural emissions could lead to a reduction in PM related mortality of >50% plus associated economic costs in 42 out of the 59 countries studied. Within the EU, 140 thousand deaths could be prevented per year with an associated economic benefit of about 407billionUS$/year. A cost-benefit assessment of ammonia emission abatement options for the EU indicates that the reduction of agricultural emissions generates net financial and social benefits. The monetization of the health benefits of air pollution abatement policies and the costs of implementation can help devise cost-effective air quality management strategies.

摘要

农业氨排放是细颗粒物空气污染(PM)的主要贡献者,对人类健康有重大影响,导致死亡率上升。我们使用模型计算的排放情景来研究减少农业排放带来的健康和经济效益。我们应用“统计生命价值”指标来将相关健康结果货币化。我们的分析表明,在我们研究的 59 个国家中,农业排放量减少 50%每年可预防超过 20 万人死亡,尤其是在欧洲、俄罗斯、土耳其、美国、加拿大和中国,同时还带来数十亿美元的经济效益。在欧盟(EU),死亡率可降低 18%,每年带来 890 亿美元的经济效益。理论上完全淘汰农业排放可使 59 个研究国家中的 42 个国家的与 PM 相关的死亡率降低 50%以上,并带来相关的经济成本。在欧盟内部,每年可预防 14 万人死亡,每年带来约 4070 亿美元的经济效益。对欧盟氨减排措施的成本效益评估表明,减少农业排放可产生净财务和社会效益。空气污染减排政策的健康效益的货币化以及实施成本可以帮助制定具有成本效益的空气质量管理策略。

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