Nee Sean
The Braithwaite Group in: Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, The Pennsylvania State University, 410 Forest Resources Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2018 May 16;5(5):172181. doi: 10.1098/rsos.172181. eCollection 2018 May.
Survival analysis in biology and reliability theory in engineering concern the dynamical functioning of bio/electro/mechanical units. Here we incorporate effects of chaotic dynamics into the classical theory. Dynamical systems theory now distinguishes strong and weak chaos. Strong chaos generates Type II survivorship curves entirely as a result of the internal operation of the system, without any age-independent, external, random forces of mortality. Weak chaos exhibits (a) intermittency and (b) Type III survivorship, defined as a decreasing mortality rate: engineering explicitly defines this pattern of decreasing hazard as 'infant mortality'. Weak chaos generates two phenomena from the normal functioning of the system. First, infant mortality- engineering-without any external explanatory factors, such as manufacturing defects, which is followed by increased average longevity of survivors. Second, sudden failure of units during their normal period of operation, before the onset of age-dependent mortality arising from senescence. The relevance of these phenomena encompasses, for example: no-fault-found failure of electronic devices; high rates of human early spontaneous miscarriage/abortion; runaway pacemakers; sudden cardiac death in young adults; bipolar disorder; and epilepsy.
生物学中的生存分析和工程学中的可靠性理论关注生物/电子/机械单元的动态功能。在此，我们将混沌动力学的影响纳入经典理论。动态系统理论现在区分强混沌和弱混沌。强混沌完全由于系统的内部运行而产生II型生存曲线，不存在任何与年龄无关的外部随机死亡力。弱混沌表现出（a）间歇性和（b）III型生存，定义为死亡率下降：工程学明确将这种危险率下降的模式定义为“早期失效”。弱混沌从系统的正常运行中产生两种现象。第一，早期失效——工程学意义上的——没有任何外部解释因素，如制造缺陷，随后幸存者的平均寿命增加。第二，单元在正常运行期间突然失效，早于因衰老而产生的与年龄相关的死亡率开始之前。这些现象的相关性包括，例如：电子设备的无故障发现失效；人类早期自然流产/堕胎的高发生率；起搏器失控；年轻人的心脏性猝死；双相情感障碍；以及癫痫。
