Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Biodiversity and Reef Conservation Laboratory, Unidad Académica de Sistemas Arrecifales, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto Morelos, Mexico.
Nature. 2018 Jun;558(7710):396-400. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z. Epub 2018 Jun 14.
Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.
海平面上升（SLR）预计将提高珊瑚礁上方的水深，并增加沿海波浪的暴露，因为生态退化限制了垂直珊瑚礁的生长，但预测缺乏有关珊瑚礁生长的本地速度与海平面上升之间相互作用的数据。在这里，我们计算了 200 多个热带西大西洋和印度洋珊瑚礁的垂直生长潜力，并将这些数据与不同代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景下最近和预计的海平面上升速度进行了比较。尽管许多珊瑚礁的附着率接近最近的海平面上升趋势，但如果没有持续的生态恢复，在 RCP4.5 情景下，很少有珊瑚礁有能力跟踪海平面上升的预测，而在 RCP8.5 情景下，预计到 2100 年，大多数珊瑚礁的平均水深将增加 0.5 米以上。珊瑚覆盖率强烈预测了珊瑚礁跟踪海平面上升的能力，但防止淹没所需的临界覆盖水平远高于大多数珊瑚礁上观察到的水平。因此，迫切需要采取行动来缓解气候、海平面和未来的生态变化，以限制未来珊瑚礁淹没的程度。
