Kench Paul S, Morgan Kyle M, Owen Susan D, Lin Ke, Wang Xianfeng, Ramos Riovie D
Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 1;16(1):5872. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-60972-2.
Empirical observations of the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) and the timing of its recent acceleration are critical for validating ensemble methods used to determine global mean sea level trends. Such records are critically important at far-field locations where instrumental datasets are scarce. Here we construct a continuous 90-year sea level record (1930-2019) from the central tropical Indian Ocean derived from the incremental growth of a coral microatoll, which is demonstrated to reflect changes in sea level at annual timescales. Our record, which overlaps with tide gauge observations, extends the instrumental record by six decades and reveals climatic variability and marked changes in sea level behaviour across the twentieth century characterised by: (1) an increase in sea level of 0.30 m between 1930 and 2019; (2) low rates of SLR in the early twentieth century (1.42 ± 0.42 mm.yr); (3) a marked acceleration in SLR to ~3.44 ± 0.68 mm.y in the late 1950's; and (4) a further increase to 4.39 ± 0.48 mm.y over the past three decades. Our results provide empirical evidence for a mid-century SLR acceleration in the central Indian Ocean, which is earlier than instrumental records indicate for coastal sites at the continental margins.
对海平面上升（SLR）速率及其近期加速时间的实证观测，对于验证用于确定全球平均海平面趋势的集合方法至关重要。在仪器数据集稀缺的远场位置，此类记录尤为重要。在此，我们根据珊瑚微环礁的增量生长构建了一条来自热带印度洋中部的连续90年海平面记录（1930 - 2019年），该记录被证明能反映年度时间尺度上的海平面变化。我们的记录与验潮仪观测数据重叠，将仪器记录延长了六十年，并揭示了整个二十世纪的气候变异性以及海平面行为的显著变化，其特征为：（1）1930年至2019年间海平面上升了0.30米；（2）二十世纪初海平面上升速率较低（1.42±0.42毫米/年）；（3）20世纪50年代后期海平面上升显著加速至约3.44±0.68毫米/年；（4）在过去三十年中进一步增至4.39±0.48毫米/年。我们的结果为印度洋中部本世纪中叶海平面上升加速提供了实证证据，这比大陆边缘沿海站点的仪器记录所显示的时间更早。
