GIS assessment of the risk of gene flow from Brassica napus to its wild relatives in China.

Risk of gene flow from canola (Brassica napus) to species of wild relatives was used as an example to evaluate the risk of gene flow of transgenic crops. B. juncea and B. rapa were the most common weedy Brassica species in China, which were both sexually compatible with canola. Data on canola cultivation in China were collected and analyzed using geographic information system (GIS), and the distribution of its wild relatives was predicted by MaxEnt species distribution model. Based on biological and phenological evidence, our results showed that gene flow risk exists in most parts of the country, especially in places with higher richness of wild Brassica species. However, risk in dominant canola cultivation regions is relatively low owing to the reduced distribution density of wild species in these regions. Three regions of higher risk of gene flow had been identified. Risk of gene flow is relatively high in certain areas. China has been assumed to be the original center of B. juncea and B. rapa, and gene flow may lead to negative effects on the conservation of biodiversity of local species. Strategies had been proposed to reduce the possibility of gene flow either by monitoring introgression from crops to wild relatives in the areas of high adoption of the crop or by taking measures to limit the releasing of new crops or varieties in the areas with abundant wild relatives.