Gómez Miguel-Ángel, Avugos Simcha, Oñoro Miguel-Ángel, Lorenzo Alberto, Bar-Eli Michael
Faculty of Physical Activity and Sport Sciences, Polytechnic University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
The Zinman College of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Wingate Institute, Netanya, Israel.
J Hum Kinet. 2018 Jun 13;62:135-144. doi: 10.1515/hukin-2017-0165. eCollection 2018 Jun.
It has been previously observed that basketball free-throw (FT) shooting efficiency decreases towards the end of the game. The aim of the current study was to explore possible determinants for this distinctive pattern during close games (point differential of equal or under 2 points during the final minute of the game). A sample of shots attempted by 92 players in the Spanish professional basketball league (ACB) was collected. Several personal (age, experience, playing position and career FT percentage) and contextual (team ability, competition stage, game location, seconds remaining and score differential) variables were considered for the analysis of the data. The effects of the predictor variables on the players' performance were analyzed according to two game contexts (FT attempted during the final minute or the last pair of FTs) using binomial logistic regression analysis. The results showed that during the final minute the only statistically significant variable was being in the center playing position (OR = 1.58), which decreased the FT shooting percentage compared to forwards and guards. In addition, the results during the last pair of FTs showed that the playing position of guards (OR = 1.70) and centers (OR = 2.22) was significant (a decrease in their FT percentage). Conversely, the score differential when tied (OR = -1.17) or losing (OR = -2.43) was significant, reflecting a lower probability of missing the shot. The results were interpreted and discussed from the viewpoints of crisis theory and the literature on choking in athletic performance.
此前已有观察发现，篮球罚球命中率在比赛接近尾声时会下降。本研究的目的是探讨在势均力敌的比赛（比赛最后一分钟分差为2分及以内）中出现这种独特模式的可能决定因素。收集了西班牙职业篮球联赛（ACB）中92名球员的罚球尝试样本。分析数据时考虑了几个个人因素（年龄、经验、比赛位置和职业生涯罚球命中率）和情境因素（球队实力、比赛阶段、比赛地点、剩余秒数和分差）。使用二项逻辑回归分析，根据两种比赛情境（最后一分钟的罚球尝试或最后一组罚球）分析预测变量对球员表现的影响。结果表明，在最后一分钟，唯一具有统计学意义的变量是处于中锋位置（比值比=1.58），与前锋和后卫相比，这会降低罚球命中率。此外，最后一组罚球的结果表明，后卫（比值比=1.70）和中锋（比值比=2.22）的比赛位置具有显著性（罚球命中率下降）。相反，平局（比值比=-1.17）或落后（比值比=-2.43）时分差具有显著性，这反映了罚球不中的概率较低。从危机理论和运动表现中“发挥失常”的文献角度对结果进行了解释和讨论。
