a Department of Psychiatry , University of California , San Diego.
J Pers Assess. 2018 Sep-Oct;100(5):483-492. doi: 10.1080/00223891.2018.1481077. Epub 2018 Jun 21.
The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) is a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of the individual terrorist. It is a rationally derived theoretical model comprising eight proximal warning behaviors and 10 distal characteristics. Empirical research on the TRAP-18 is reviewed, including both nomothetic and idiographic studies of individual terrorists in both the United States and Europe. Mean interrater reliability is 0.895 (Cohen's kappa), ranging from 0.69 to 1.0. Evidence of criterion validity has been demonstrated, including usefulness of the instrument across various extremist ideologies (jihadism, ethnic nationalism, and single-issue), and its ability to discriminate between thwarted and successful attackers. The instrument appears to advance the domain recommendations of Monahan (2012, 2016) for the risk assessment of the individual terrorist. The TRAP-18 is further discussed as a threat assessment instrument for mental health clinicians. The limitations of the current research provide direction for further studies to assess its reliability and construct, discriminant, and predictive validity.
恐怖主义激进化评估方案（TRAP-18）是一种用于个体恐怖分子威胁评估的结构化专业判断工具。它是一个合理推导的理论模型，包括八个近端预警行为和 10 个远端特征。对 TRAP-18 的实证研究进行了回顾，包括在美国和欧洲的个体恐怖分子的定类和定序研究。平均评分者间信度为 0.895（Cohen's kappa），范围为 0.69 到 1.0。已经证明了该工具具有效标效度的证据，包括该工具在各种极端意识形态（圣战、族裔民族主义和单一问题）中的有用性，以及它在区分受挫和成功攻击者方面的能力。该工具似乎推进了莫纳汉（2012 年，2016 年）关于个体恐怖分子风险评估的领域建议。进一步讨论了 TRAP-18 作为心理健康临床医生的威胁评估工具。目前研究的局限性为进一步研究评估其可靠性和结构、判别和预测有效性提供了方向。
