基于油籽生产航空生物燃料的随机技术经济分析
Stochastic techno-economic analysis of the production of aviation biofuel from oilseeds.
作者信息
Diniz Ana Paula M M, Sargeant Richard, Millar Graeme J
机构信息
Institute for Future Environments, Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane, QLD Australia.
出版信息
Biotechnol Biofuels. 2018 Jun 8;11:161. doi: 10.1186/s13068-018-1158-0. eCollection 2018.
BACKGROUND
The economic viability of hydrodeoxygenation process using Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha feedstocks for aviation biofuel production was evaluated for two product profiles: (i) maximum diesel production and (ii) maximum jet fuel production (HRJ).
RESULTS
Deterministic analysis of Camelina and Carinata diesel facilities returned positive NPVs and IRRs of 25 and 18%, respectively. Stochastic analysis suggested that the probabilities of positive NPVs were 75, 59 and 15%, respectively, for Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha diesel plants. Jet fuel facilities presented probabilities of loss of 98, 99 and 100% for Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha scenarios, respectively. Sensitivity analysis determined that financial performance was majorly influenced by feedstock and fuel prices. Categories of subsidies to enhance the attractiveness of the projects were studied.
CONCLUSIONS
Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha plants targeting HRJ required incentives of 0.31, 0.39 and 0.61 US$/L of biofuel produced, respectively, to reduce the probabilities of loss to approximately 30%.
背景
针对两种产品方案，评估了使用亚麻荠、麻风树和麻疯树原料生产航空生物燃料的加氢脱氧工艺的经济可行性：（i）最大柴油产量；（ii）最大喷气燃料产量（加氢可再生喷气燃料）。
结果
对亚麻荠和麻风树柴油设施的确定性分析得出正净现值，内部收益率分别为25%和18%。随机分析表明，亚麻荠、麻风树和麻疯树柴油厂正净现值的概率分别为75%、59%和15%。在亚麻荠、麻风树和麻疯树方案中，喷气燃料设施出现亏损的概率分别为98%、99%和100%。敏感性分析确定，财务表现主要受原料和燃料价格影响。研究了提高项目吸引力的补贴类别。
结论
以加氢可再生喷气燃料为目标的亚麻荠、麻风树和麻疯树工厂，分别需要每升生物燃料0.31美元、0.39美元和0.61美元的激励措施，才能将亏损概率降低至约30%。
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