Unit of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Institut Louis Malardé, Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia; Aix-Marseille Université, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Marseille, Service de Santé des Armées, Unité Mixte de Recherche Vecteurs-Infections Tropicales et Méditerranéennes (VITROME), Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France.
Public Health and Infection Research Group, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira, Pereira, Colombia; Colombian Collaborative Network of Research on Zika and other Arboviruses, Pereira, Colombia.
Lancet Infect Dis. 2018 Nov;18(11):e355-e361. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30269-X. Epub 2018 Jun 19.
Pandemic arboviruses have emerged as a major global health problem in the past four decades. Predicting where and when the next arbovirus epidemic will occur is a challenge, but history suggests that arboviral black swan events (epidemics that are difficult to predict and that have an extreme effect) will continue to occur as urban growth and globalisation expand. We briefly review unexpected arbovirus epidemics that have occurred in the past 50 years, with emphasis on the American and Pacific regions, to illustrate their unpredictability, and to highlight the need for improved global preparedness, including laboratory-based surveillance, prevention, and control programmes.
在过去的四十年中，大流行的虫媒病毒已成为一个主要的全球卫生问题。预测下一次虫媒病毒疫情将在何时何地发生是一项挑战，但历史表明，随着城市发展和全球化的扩大，虫媒病毒黑天鹅事件（难以预测且影响极大的疫情）将继续发生。我们简要回顾了过去 50 年中发生的意外虫媒病毒疫情，重点介绍了美洲和太平洋地区的疫情，以说明其不可预测性，并强调需要加强全球防范，包括基于实验室的监测、预防和控制规划。
