Mahaki Behzad, Mehrabi Yadollah, Kavousi Amir, Schmid Volker J
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran. Email:
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2018 Jun 25;19(6):1553-1560. doi: 10.22034/APJCP.2018.19.6.1553.
Background: Among the proposals for joint disease mapping, the shared component model has become more popular. Another advance to strengthen inference of disease data is the extension of purely spatial models to include time aspect. We aim to combine the idea of multivariate shared components with spatio-temporal modelling in a joint disease mapping model and apply it for incidence rates of seven prevalent cancers in Iran which together account for approximately 50% of all cancers. Methods: In the proposed model, each component is shared by different subsets of diseases, spatial and temporal trends are considered for each component, and the relative weight of these trends for each component for each relevant disease can be estimated. Results: For esophagus and stomach cancers the Northern provinces was the area of high risk. For colorectal cancer Gilan, Semnan, Fars, Isfahan, Yazd and East-Azerbaijan were the highest risk provinces. For bladder and lung cancer, the northwest were the highest risk area. For prostate and breast cancers, Isfahan, Yazd, Fars, Tehran, Semnan, Mazandaran and Khorasane-Razavi were the highest risk part. The smoking component, shared by esophagus, stomach, bladder and lung, had more effect in Gilan, Mazandaran, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kohgilouyeh and Boyerahmad, Ardebil and Tehran provinces, in turn. For overweight and obesity component, shared by esophagus, colorectal, prostate and breast cancers the largest effect was found for Tehran, Khorasane-Razavi, Semnan, Yazd, Isfahan, Fars, Mazandaran and Gilan, in turn. For low physical activity component, shared by colorectal and breast cancers North-Khorasan, Ardebil, Golestan, Ilam, Khorasane-Razavi and South-Khorasan had the largest effects, in turn. The smoking component is significantly more important for stomach than for esophagus, bladder and lung. The overweight and obesity had significantly more effect for colorectal than of esophagus cancer. Conclusions: The presented model is a valuable model to model geographical and temporal variation among diseases and has some interesting potential features and benefits over other joint models.
在联合疾病图谱绘制的诸多提议中，共享成分模型愈发流行。另一个强化疾病数据推断的进展是将纯粹的空间模型扩展至纳入时间维度。我们旨在将多变量共享成分的理念与时空建模相结合，构建一个联合疾病图谱模型，并将其应用于伊朗七种常见癌症的发病率，这七种癌症合计约占所有癌症的50%。方法：在所提出的模型中，每个成分由不同的疾病子集共享，针对每个成分考虑空间和时间趋势，并且可以估计每个相关疾病的每个成分的这些趋势的相对权重。结果：对于食管癌和胃癌，北部省份是高风险地区。对于结直肠癌，吉兰省、塞姆南省、法尔斯省、伊斯法罕省、亚兹德省和东阿塞拜疆省是风险最高的省份。对于膀胱癌和肺癌，西北部是风险最高的地区。对于前列腺癌和乳腺癌，伊斯法罕省、亚兹德省、法尔斯省、德黑兰省、塞姆南省、马赞德兰省和呼罗珊拉扎维省是风险最高的地区。由食管癌、胃癌、膀胱癌和肺癌共享的吸烟成分，依次在吉兰省、马赞德兰省、恰哈马哈勒－巴赫蒂亚里省、科吉卢耶－博韦艾哈迈德省、阿尔达比勒省和德黑兰省影响更大。对于由食管癌、结直肠癌、前列腺癌和乳腺癌共享的超重和肥胖成分，依次在德黑兰省、呼罗珊拉扎维省、塞姆南省、亚兹德省、伊斯法罕省、法尔斯省、马赞德兰省和吉兰省影响最大。对于由结直肠癌和乳腺癌共享的低体力活动成分，依次在北呼罗珊省、阿尔达比勒省、戈勒斯坦省、伊拉姆省、呼罗珊拉扎维省和南呼罗珊省影响最大。吸烟成分对胃癌的影响比对食管癌、膀胱癌和肺癌的影响显著更大。超重和肥胖对结直肠癌的影响比对食管癌的影响显著更大。结论：所提出的模型是一个用于模拟疾病地理和时间变异的有价值的模型，并且与其他联合模型相比具有一些有趣的潜在特征和优势。
