Rastaghi Sedigheh, Jafari-Koshki Tohid, Mahaki Behzad, Bashiri Yousef, Mehrabani Kamran, Soleimani Ali
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences, Sabzevar, Iran.
Department of Statistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Road Traffic Injury Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.
Int J Prev Med. 2019 May 17;10:79. doi: 10.4103/ijpvm.IJPVM_188_17. eCollection 2019.
Gastric cancer (GC) is the first and the third prevalent cancer among males and females in Iran, respectively. The aim of this study was mainly to identify high-risk areas of GC by assessing the spatial and temporal pattern of incidence, and second, to explore some risk factors of GC in ecological setting.
In this cross-sectional ecological study we used Bayesian hierarchical space-time model to measure the relative risk and temporal trends of GC in Iran from 2005 to 2010 based on available data. Data analysis was done by the use of integrated nested Laplace approximation Bayesian approach in R software.
Overall trend of GC was significantly decreasing during the study period. Ardabil, Khorasan Razavi, West Azarbaijan, Zanjan, and Mazandaran provinces had the highest risk of incidence. Overweight and smoking were directly and significantly associated with GC risk.
During the study period, GC has decreased in Iran. Nevertheless, GC risk was generally high in Northern and Northwestern provinces of Iran. Different health policies according to GC risk and trend are required for each province. Improvements in screening and education programs and conducting further epidemiological studies could help to reduce the incidence of GC in high risk provinces.
在伊朗，胃癌分别是男性和女性中发病率排名第一和第三的常见癌症。本研究的目的主要是通过评估发病率的时空模式来确定胃癌的高危地区，其次是在生态学背景下探索胃癌的一些风险因素。
在这项横断面生态学研究中，我们基于现有数据，使用贝叶斯分层时空模型来测量2005年至2010年伊朗胃癌的相对风险和时间趋势。数据分析通过在R软件中使用集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似贝叶斯方法进行。
在研究期间，胃癌的总体趋势显著下降。阿尔达比勒省、霍拉桑拉扎维省、西阿塞拜疆省、赞詹省和马赞达兰省的发病风险最高。超重和吸烟与胃癌风险直接且显著相关。
在研究期间，伊朗的胃癌发病率有所下降。然而，伊朗北部和西北部省份的胃癌风险总体较高。每个省份都需要根据胃癌风险和趋势制定不同的卫生政策。改进筛查和教育项目以及开展进一步的流行病学研究有助于降低高危省份的胃癌发病率。
