2020 年和 2030 年中国工业挥发性有机物排放的许可和分配。

School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China.

School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Pollution Control, Guangzhou 510006, China; National Engineering Laboratory for VOCs Pollution Control Technology and Equipment, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China.

J Environ Sci (China). 2018 Jul;69:155-165. doi: 10.1016/j.jes.2017.10.003. Epub 2017 Oct 15.

As an effective pollution control method, emission allowance and allocation just implemented in volatile organic compounds (VOCs) control strategy of China in 2016. This article presents a possible way to set the emission allowance targets and establishes an allowance allocation model for the object year, 2020 and 2030, using 2010 as the reference year. On the basis of regression and scenario analysis method, the emission allowance targets were designed, which were 17.902Tg and 18.224Tg for 2020 and 2030, with an increasing rate of 28.75% and 31.06% compared to 2010. From the perspective of industries, processes using VOCs-containing products, like machinery and equipment manufacturing, would continue to be the most significant industrial VOCs emission sources in the future of China. Four allocation indicators were selected, which are per capita GDP of each province, per capita industrial VOCs emission of each province, the economic contribution of industrial sector to regional economy of each province, and the emission intensity per land area of each province, respectively. Based on information entropy, the weights of the indicators were calculated and an emission allocation model was established, and the results showed that provinces like Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian were calculated to obtain more emission allowance while burden more reduction responsibility. Meanwhile, provinces like Guizhou, Ningxia, Hainan, Qinghai and Xizang were on the contrary. This paper suggests governments to enhance or ease to industrial VOCs reduction burden of each province in order to stimulate its economy or change its way of economy development.

作为一种有效的污染控制方法，排放许可和分配制度于 2016 年在中国挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）控制战略中首次实施。本文提出了一种设定排放许可目标的可能方法，并为对象年份 2020 年和 2030 年建立了排放分配模型，以 2010 年为基准年。基于回归和情景分析方法，设计了排放许可目标，即 2020 年和 2030 年分别为 17.902Tg 和 18.224Tg，与 2010 年相比，增长率分别为 28.75%和 31.06%。从行业角度来看，未来中国使用含 VOCs 产品的机械和设备制造等工艺仍将是最重要的工业 VOCs 排放源。本文选择了四个分配指标，分别是各省人均 GDP、各省人均工业 VOCs 排放、各省工业部门对区域经济的经济贡献以及各省单位土地面积的排放强度。基于信息熵，计算了指标的权重，并建立了排放分配模型，结果表明，山东、江苏、广东、浙江和福建等省被计算为获得更多的排放许可，同时承担更多的减排责任。而贵州、宁夏、海南、青海和西藏等省则相反。本文建议政府加强或减轻各省份的工业 VOCs 减排负担，以刺激其经济发展或改变其经济发展方式。