The assessment and prediction of temporal variations in surface water quality-a case study.

In order to optimize the processes of sampling, monitoring, and management, the initial aim of this paper was to develop a model for the definition and prediction of temporal changes of water quality. In the case of the Morava River Basin (Serbia), the patterns of temporal changes have been recognized by applying different multivariate statistical techniques. The results of the conducted cluster analysis are the indicators of the existence of the three monitoring periods: the low-water, transitional, and high-water periods, which is in accordance with changes in the water flow in the analyzed river basin. A possibility of reducing the initial data set and recognizing the main pollution sources was examined by carrying out the principal component/factor analysis. The results indicate that the natural factor has a dominant influence in temporal groups. In order to recognize the discriminatory water quality parameters, a discriminant analysis (DA) was carried out. Conducting the DA enabled a significant reduction in the data set by the extraction of two parameters (the water temperature and electrical conductivity). Furthermore, the artificial neural network technique was used for testing the possibility of predicting changes in the values of the discriminant factors in the monitoring periods. The reliability of this method for the prediction of temporal variations of both extracted parameters within all temporal clusters has been proven.