Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea.
PLoS One. 2018 Jun 28;13(6):e0199205. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0199205. eCollection 2018.
Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Korea. In this study, we develop a two-strain dengue model associated with climate-dependent parameters based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We assess the potential risks of dengue outbreaks by means of the vector capacity and intensity under various RCP scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of the temperature-dependent parameters is performed to explore the effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics. Our results demonstrate that a higher temperature significantly enhances the potential threat of domestic dengue outbreaks in Korea. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of countermeasures on the cumulative incidence of humans and vectors. The current main control measures (comprising only travel restrictions) for infected humans in Korea are not as effective as combined control measures (travel restrictions and vector control), dramatically reducing the possibilities of dengue outbreaks.
登革热是一个主要的国际公共卫生关注点，全球超过 55%的人口面临感染风险。与全球变暖相关的近期气候变化增加了韩国国内登革热爆发的潜在风险。在这项研究中，我们基于韩国气象厅提供的代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景，开发了一个与气候相关参数相关的两菌株登革热模型。我们通过各种 RCP 情景下的媒介容量和强度评估登革热爆发的潜在风险。我们对温度相关参数进行了敏感性分析，以探讨气候变化对登革热传播动力学的影响。我们的结果表明，较高的温度会显著增加韩国国内登革热爆发的潜在威胁。此外，我们还研究了对策对人类和媒介累积发病率的影响。目前韩国对感染人类的主要控制措施（仅包括旅行限制）不如综合控制措施（旅行限制和媒介控制）有效，极大地降低了登革热爆发的可能性。
