Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, 190 Ben Ham Tu, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Exp Biol Med (Maywood). 2011 Aug;236(8):944-54. doi: 10.1258/ebm.2011.010402. Epub 2011 Jul 7.
The mounting evidence for anthropogenic changes in global climate raises many pressing questions about the potential effects on biological systems, and in particular the transmission of infectious diseases. Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, may be particularly sensitive to both periodic fluctuations and sustained changes in global and local climates, because vector biology and viral replication are temperature- and moisture-dependent. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on the associations between climate variability, climate change and dengue transmission, and the tools being used to quantify these associations. The underlying causes of dengue's recent global expansion are multifactorial and poorly understood, but climatic factors should be considered within the context of the sociodemographic, economic and immunological determinants that have contributed to dengue's spread. These factors may mediate the direct effects of climate on dengue and many may operate at a very local level. Translating theoretical models of dengue transmission based on historical data into predictive models that can inform public health interventions is a critical next step and efforts should be focused on developing and refining models at smaller spatial scales to characterize the relationships between both climatic and non-climatic factors and dengue risk.
人为引起的全球气候变化的证据越来越多，这引发了许多关于其对生物系统潜在影响的紧迫问题，特别是对传染病传播的影响。虫媒传染病，如登革热，可能特别容易受到全球和局部气候周期性波动和持续变化的影响，因为媒介生物学和病毒复制都依赖于温度和湿度。本文综述了目前关于气候变率、气候变化与登革热传播之间关联的知识状况，以及用于量化这些关联的工具。导致登革热近期在全球范围内蔓延的原因是多方面的，目前尚不完全清楚，但应在促成登革热传播的社会人口、经济和免疫学决定因素的背景下考虑气候因素。这些因素可能会调节气候对登革热的直接影响，而且许多因素可能在非常局部的层面上起作用。将基于历史数据的登革热传播理论模型转化为可用于指导公共卫生干预的预测模型是至关重要的下一步，应集中精力在较小的空间尺度上开发和完善模型，以描述气候和非气候因素与登革热风险之间的关系。
