Dror Itiel E, Langenburg Glenn
University College London, London, UK.
Elite Forensic Services, LLC, Saint Paul, MN.
J Forensic Sci. 2019 Jan;64(1):10-15. doi: 10.1111/1556-4029.13854. Epub 2018 Jul 5.
Inconclusive decisions, deciding not to decide, are decisions. We present a cognitive model which takes into account that decisions are an outcome of interactions and intersections between the actual data and human cognition. Using this model it is suggested under which circumstances inconclusive decisions are justified and even warranted (reflecting proper caution and meta-cognitive abilities in recognizing limited abilities), and, conversely, under what circumstances inconclusive decisions are unjustifiable and should not be permitted. The model further explores the limitations and problems in using categorical decision-making when the data are actually a continuum. Solutions are suggested within the forensic fingerprinting domain, but they can be applied to other forensic domains, and, with modifications, may also be applied to other expert domains.
不确定的决策,即决定不做决定,也是一种决策。我们提出了一种认知模型,该模型考虑到决策是实际数据与人类认知之间相互作用和交叉的结果。利用这个模型,我们指出了在哪些情况下不确定的决策是合理的甚至是必要的(反映了在认识到自身能力有限时的适当谨慎和元认知能力),反之,在哪些情况下不确定的决策是不合理的且不应被允许。该模型还进一步探讨了在数据实际上是连续体时使用分类决策的局限性和问题。我们在法医指纹识别领域提出了解决方案,但这些方案也可应用于其他法医领域,并且经过修改后,也可能适用于其他专家领域。