School of Economics and Management, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, China.
Key Laboratory of Road Construction Technology and Equipment, MOE, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Jul 7;15(7):1437. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15071437.
The deaths of accident occurring in land hazardous material transport (rail and road) is a scale standard for judging accident severity in safety programmes. The - curve is a common practice to express the results from past scattered accident data through curve fitting method, which only estimate the overall trend. For this reason, this paper proposed a simple methodology by combination of normal distribution and - curve. To verify the method, the following three sets of statistical data were selected and analysed in this study: 1932 accidents in over 95 countries (1931⁻2004) and 322 accidents in China (2000⁻2008) available in the literature, and 2046 accidents investigated in China (2013⁻2017). It was found that the mean value curve is almost identical or even better than the best-fitted curve, while the predicted upper and lower limits with 96% reliability (±2σ) covering nearly all the statistical data are beyond the scope of common curve fitting. The result explains the inherent relation between accumulated frequency and deaths in different transport mode, in different country and at different period. This study also provides insights on the evolution of accident severity with the development of social economy and the requirement of safety.
在陆地危险物质运输（铁路和道路）事故中，死亡人数是安全计划中判断事故严重程度的规模标准。-曲线是通过曲线拟合方法表达过去分散的事故数据结果的常用方法，该方法仅估计总体趋势。出于这个原因，本文提出了一种简单的方法，将正态分布和-曲线相结合。为了验证该方法，本研究选择并分析了以下三组统计数据：文献中可获得的 95 个以上国家（1931-2004 年）的 1932 起事故和中国的 322 起事故（2000-2008 年），以及中国（2013-2017 年）调查的 2046 起事故。结果发现，均值曲线几乎相同，甚至更好，而具有 96%可靠性（±2σ）的预测上限和下限几乎涵盖了所有统计数据，超出了常见曲线拟合的范围。结果解释了不同运输方式、不同国家和不同时期累积频率与死亡之间的内在关系。本研究还深入了解了事故严重程度随着社会经济发展和安全要求的演变。
