College of Earth Science, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China.
Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Jul 18;15(7):1522. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15071522.
During the last 40 years, the quantity and spatial patterns of farmland in Western Jilin have changed dramatically, which has had a great impact on soybean production potential. This study used one of the most advanced crop production potential models, the Global Agro-Ecological Zones model, to calculate the soybean production potential in Western Jilin based on meteorological, topography, soil and land use data, and analyzed the impact of farmland change on soybean production potential during 1975⁻2013. The main conclusions were the following: first, the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin in 2013 was 8.92 million tonnes, and the average soybean production potential was 1612 kg/ha. The production potential of eastern area was higher than the other areas of Western Jilin. Second, farmland change led to a growth of 3.30 million tonnes in soybean production potential between 1975 and 2000, and a decrease of 1.03 million tonnes between 2000 and 2013. Third, taking account of two situations of farmland change, the conversion between dryland and other categories, and the change of irrigation percentage led to the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin increased by 2.31 and only 0.28 million tonnes respectively between 1975 and 2000, and increased by 0.12 and 0.29 million tonnes respectively between 2000 and 2013. In general, the increase of soybean potential production was mainly due to grassland and woodland reclamation. The results of this study would be a good guideline for protecting safe baseline of farmland, managing land resources, and ensuring continuity and stability of soybean supply and food security.
在过去的 40 年中，中国西部吉林的农田数量和空间格局发生了巨大变化，这对大豆生产潜力产生了重大影响。本研究使用最先进的作物生产潜力模型之一——全球农业生态区模型，根据气象、地形、土壤和土地利用数据，计算了 1975 年至 2013 年期间中国西部吉林的大豆生产潜力，并分析了农田变化对大豆生产潜力的影响。主要结论如下：首先，2013 年中国西部吉林的大豆总产量潜力为 892 万吨，平均大豆产量潜力为 1612 公斤/公顷。东部地区的生产潜力高于西部吉林的其他地区。其次，农田变化导致 1975 年至 2000 年大豆生产潜力增加了 330 万吨，2000 年至 2013 年减少了 103 万吨。第三，考虑到两种农田变化情况，即旱地与其他类型之间的转换以及灌溉比例的变化，导致 1975 年至 2000 年期间中国西部吉林的大豆总产量潜力增加了 231 万吨，仅增加了 0.28 万吨，2000 年至 2013 年期间分别增加了 120 万吨和 0.29 万吨。总的来说，大豆潜在产量的增加主要是由于草地和林地的开垦。本研究的结果将为保护耕地安全底线、管理土地资源以及确保大豆供应的连续性和稳定性以及粮食安全提供良好的指导。
