National Marine Data & Information Service, Tianjin, China.
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, Beijing, China.
Sci Rep. 2018 Jul 27;8(1):11309. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-29712-z.
The present study mainly investigates the storm surge variations at different temporal scales using hourly tide gauge data in the Bohai Sea. The seasonal variation, inter-decadal variation, long-term trend and the tide-surge interaction were analyzed separately. The results show that the storm surges in the southwest Bohai Sea are larger than those in the north. The storm surges were more serious in winter (Oct. to Mar.) than in summer half of the year. Significant inter-decadal variations exist in the Bohai Sea, and the extreme storm surge events have been intensifying since 2010. Storm surge intensities at three of the tide gauges (Qinhuangdao, Huludao and Tanggu) exhibited a decreasing trend from 1980 to 2016, with trends significant at the 95% level at Qinhuangdao and Tanggu. Significant tide-surge interactions were observed at all four tide gauges. The tide-surge interaction that results in peak surges mostly occurs during the flood and ebb tides. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between storm surge intensity and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at Longkou and Tanggu, while there is a significantly positive correlation between storm surge intensity and the Siberian High (SH) at Huludao, Qinhuangdao and Tanggu. A linear regression analysis revealed that the variations of the AO and SH explained 19-48% of the variations in the storm surge intensity in the Bohai Sea.
本研究主要利用渤海的逐时验潮数据，研究不同时间尺度的风暴潮变化。分别分析了季节性变化、年代际变化、长期趋势和潮浪相互作用。结果表明，渤海西南部的风暴潮大于北部。冬季（10 月至 3 月）的风暴潮比半年中的夏季更严重。渤海存在明显的年代际变化，自 2010 年以来，极端风暴潮事件一直在加剧。在 1980 年至 2016 年期间，秦皇岛、葫芦岛和塘沽三个验潮站的风暴潮强度呈下降趋势，秦皇岛和塘沽的趋势在 95%水平上显著。在所有四个验潮站都观察到了显著的潮浪相互作用。导致峰值浪涌的潮浪相互作用主要发生在涨潮和落潮期间。龙口和塘沽的风暴潮强度与北极涛动（AO）呈显著负相关，而葫芦岛、秦皇岛和塘沽的风暴潮强度与西伯利亚高压（SH）呈显著正相关。线性回归分析表明，AO 和 SH 的变化解释了渤海风暴潮强度变化的 19-48%。
