Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering & National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, USA.
Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive, Suite 100, Arlington, USA.
Sci Rep. 2022 Aug 3;12(1):13307. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x.
We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980-2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.
我们解决了由于观测记录稀疏而导致的全球风暴潮气候长期变化研究的挑战。我们使用了来自全球风暴潮重建数据库（GSSR）的两个百年和三个卫星时代的每日风暴潮时间序列，并评估了全球 320 个潮汐计在 1930 年、1950 年和 1980 年至现在期间极端风暴潮事件的幅度和频率的趋势。在计算趋势之前，我们进行了断点分析，以识别和去除大气再分析产品中可能导致风暴潮数据出现虚假趋势的数据。即使在去除不可靠的数据后，该数据库仍为大多数潮汐计延长了现有的风暴潮记录几十年。从百年 20CR 和 ERA-20C 大气再分析中得出的风暴潮显示，在 1930 年和 1950 年之后的时期，北海南部和卡特加特湾地区的风暴潮一直呈持续显著的正趋势，而自 1980 年以来则呈负趋势。在比较所有五个风暴潮重建和观测结果时，我们发现 1980-2010 年的重叠期间整体上具有良好的一致性，但在一些海岸线，如比斯开湾和澳大利亚，存在明显的差异。我们还评估了极端浪潮频率的变化，发现自 1930 年和 1950 年以来，在西欧、卡特加特湾和美国东海岸等几个地区，每年超过第 95 个百分位数的次数有所增加。
