Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia.
Department of Coastal and Urban Risk & Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA, Delft, The Netherlands.
Sci Rep. 2023 Jul 17;13(1):11549. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-38729-y.
A common inference in research studies of observed and projected changes in global ocean wave height and storm surge, is that such changes are potentially important for long-term coastal management. Despite numerous studies of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on trends in global wind and waves, a clear link to impacts on sandy coastlines, at global scale, is yet to be demonstrated. This study presents a first-pass assessment of the potential link between historical trends in global wave and storm surge values and recession/progradation rates of sandy coastlines since the 1980s. Global datasets of waves, surge and shoreline change rate are used for this purpose. Over the past 30 + years, we show that there have been clear changes in waves and storm surge at global scale. The data, however, does not show an unequivocal linkage between trends in wave and storm surge climate and sandy shoreline recession/progradation. We conclude that these long-term changes in oceanographic parameters may still be too small to have a measurable impact on shoreline recession/progradation and that primary drivers such as ambient imbalances in the coastal sediment budget may be masking any such linkages.
在观测和预测的全球海洋波高和风暴潮变化的研究中，一个常见的推断是，这些变化对于长期的海岸管理可能很重要。尽管有许多研究探讨了人为气候变化对全球风和海浪趋势的影响，但在全球范围内，气候变化与沙质海岸线的影响之间仍未建立明确的联系。本研究首次评估了自 20 世纪 80 年代以来，全球波浪和风暴潮值的历史趋势与沙质海岸线后退/前进速率之间的潜在联系。为此目的，使用了全球波浪、涌浪和海岸线变化率数据集。在过去的 30 多年里，我们表明，在全球范围内，波浪和风暴潮已经发生了明显的变化。然而，数据并未显示波浪和风暴潮气候趋势与沙质海岸线后退/前进之间存在明确的联系。我们的结论是，这些海洋参数的长期变化可能仍然太小，无法对海岸线后退/前进产生可衡量的影响，而环境中海岸沉积物收支不平衡等主要驱动因素可能掩盖了任何这种联系。
