Lee Jennifer, Bilonick Richard A, Romanowski Eric G, Kowalski Regis P
a Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences , University of Pittsburgh Medical Center , Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania , USA.
b Department of Biostatistics , University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health , Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania , USA.
Ophthalmic Epidemiol. 2018 Oct-Dec;25(5-6):451-456. doi: 10.1080/09286586.2018.1509096. Epub 2018 Aug 17.
The aim of this study is to measure the seasonal trends of adenovirus conjunctivitis.
A total of 926 positive cases of HAdV conjunctivitis were reviewed at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) in Pittsburgh (Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, USA) from 11th March 1987 to 15th December 2016. To determine seasonal variation, daily counts were adjusted for yearly changes in Allegheny County population size, modelled as a function of long-term trend using Basis-spline (B-spline), and analysed for seasonal trend by quarter (1Q = January to March, 2Q = April to June, 3Q = July to September, 4Q = October to December).
The number of adenovirus conjunctivitis cases in 3Q was 45% higher than that of 2Q (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-1.74, P = 0.0001). When 3Q is compared to 1Q and 4Q, it was not statistically significant (95% CI 0.96-1.42, P = 0.1209 and 95% CI 0.96-1.41, P = 0.1180, respectively).
To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report and the longest time-series evaluating the potential seasonality of adenovirus conjunctivitis in the USA. We observed the highest number of cases from July to September and the lowest number of cases from April to June in our study population. Knowledge of seasonality can be used to guide outbreak expectations, limit antibiotic over-prescription, and enhance disease prevention.
本研究旨在测量腺病毒结膜炎的季节性趋势。
对1987年3月11日至2016年12月15日期间美国宾夕法尼亚州阿勒格尼县匹兹堡市匹兹堡大学医学中心（UPMC）的926例人腺病毒（HAdV）结膜炎阳性病例进行回顾。为确定季节变化，对每日病例数进行调整，以反映阿勒格尼县人口规模的年度变化，使用基础样条（B样条）将其建模为长期趋势的函数，并按季度分析季节性趋势（第1季度=1月至3月，第2季度=4月至6月，第3季度=7月至9月，第4季度=10月至12月）。
第3季度腺病毒结膜炎病例数比第2季度高45%（95%置信区间[CI]1.21 - 1.74，P = 0.0001）。当将第3季度与第1季度和第4季度进行比较时，差异无统计学意义（95%CI分别为0.96 - 1.42，P = 0.1209和95%CI为0.96 - 1.41，P = 0.1180）。
据我们所知，这是美国首份评估腺病毒结膜炎潜在季节性的报告，也是时间跨度最长的时间序列研究。在我们的研究人群中，我们观察到7月至9月病例数最多，4月至6月病例数最少。了解季节性可用于指导疫情预测、限制抗生素过度处方并加强疾病预防。
