Walkowiak Marcin Piotr, Walkowiak Jarosław, Szydłowski Jarosław, Walkowiak Dariusz
Department of Preventive Medicine, https://ror.org/02zbb2597Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznań, Poland.
Department of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Metabolic Diseases, https://ror.org/02zbb2597Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznań, Poland.
Epidemiol Infect. 2025 Aug 15;153:e99. doi: 10.1017/S0950268825100393.
Limited studies on the seasonality of pharyngitis and tonsillitis suggest subtle but unexplained fluctuations in case numbers that deviate from patterns seen in other respiratory diagnoses. Data on weekly acute respiratory infection diagnoses from 2010-2022, provided by the Polish National Healthcare Fund, included a total of 360 million visits. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were sourced from the Copernicus Climate Data Store. Seasonal pattern was estimated using the STL model, while the impact of temperature was calculated with SARIMAX. A recurring early-summer wave of an unspecified pathogen causing pharyngitis and tonsillitis was identified. The strongest pattern was observed in children under 10, though other age groups also showed somewhat elevated case numbers. The reproductive number of the pathogen is modulated by warmer temperatures; however, summer holidays and pandemic restrictions interrupt its spread. The infection wave is relatively flat, suggesting either genuinely slow spread or multiple waves of related pathogens. Symptomatic data unambiguously demonstrate existence of pathogens of quite distinct characteristics. Given its consistent year-to-year pattern, identifying these potential pathogens could enhance respective treatment, including antibiotic therapy.
关于咽炎和扁桃体炎季节性的研究有限，结果显示病例数存在细微但无法解释的波动，与其他呼吸道疾病诊断中的模式不同。波兰国家医疗基金提供的2010年至2022年每周急性呼吸道感染诊断数据，共计3.6亿次就诊。日平均温度和相对湿度数据来自哥白尼气候数据存储库。使用STL模型估计季节性模式，同时用SARIMAX计算温度的影响。确定了一种未指明病原体引发咽炎和扁桃体炎的反复出现的初夏波峰。在10岁以下儿童中观察到最强的模式，不过其他年龄组的病例数也有所增加。病原体的繁殖数受温度升高的调节；然而，暑假和疫情限制中断了其传播。感染波相对平缓，表明要么传播确实缓慢，要么存在多波相关病原体。症状数据明确证明存在具有相当不同特征的病原体。鉴于其逐年一致的模式，识别这些潜在病原体可改善相应治疗，包括抗生素治疗。
