Economics of Tobacco Control Project, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.
Department for Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
PLoS One. 2018 Aug 17;13(8):e0202467. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202467. eCollection 2018.
Since the tobacco epidemic is moving from developed to developing countries, it is important to understand trends in cigarette demand and supply. We focus on the African market since it offers the tobacco industry one of the best expansion potentials.
A large variety of data from commercial (Canadean, Euromonitor International, tobacco industry reports), governmental (United Nations Comtrade, national statistics), and academic sources (Cigarette Citadels Map and journal articles) were utilized.
We compile data from multiple sources to study cigarette demand in Africa from 1990 to 2012. We then focus on cigarette production and international cigarette trade to detect structural changes in cigarette supply over the past few decades. We contrast data from these different sources.
Cigarette demand and supply data in Africa is limited and is sometimes inconsistent across different sources. Given this caveat, we found that the overall demand for cigarettes (measured by sales) in the 22 countries covered by Canadean, which represents 80% of Africa's population, increased by 44% (from 165.6 billion cigarettes to 238.5 billion cigarettes) from 1990 to 2012. This higher demand has been met by cigarette production increasing in these 22 countries by 106% during the same period. As a result, Africa has moved from being a net importer to a net exporter of cigarettes. At the same time, cigarette production has become more concentrated as the tobacco industry has strategically identified certain countries as production hubs.
Monitoring the production, consumption and trade of cigarettes by improving the quality of surveillance is necessary to understand the demand and supply of cigarettes not only in Africa, but globally.
由于烟草业的流行已从发达国家转移到发展中国家，了解香烟需求和供应的趋势变得尤为重要。我们关注非洲市场，因为它为烟草业提供了最好的扩张潜力之一。
我们利用了来自商业（Canadean、Euromonitor International、烟草业报告）、政府（联合国商品贸易数据库、国家统计数据）和学术来源（香烟堡垒地图和期刊文章）的大量数据。
我们从多个来源汇编数据，研究 1990 年至 2012 年期间非洲的香烟需求。然后，我们专注于香烟生产和国际香烟贸易，以发现过去几十年香烟供应的结构变化。我们对比了这些不同来源的数据。
非洲的香烟需求和供应数据有限，并且在不同来源之间有时不一致。鉴于此警告，我们发现，在 Canadean 涵盖的 22 个国家（占非洲人口的 80%）中，香烟的总体需求（以销售额衡量）从 1990 年的 1656 亿支增加到 2012 年的 2385 亿支，增长了 44%。在此期间，这些 22 个国家的香烟产量增长了 106%，以满足这一更高的需求。因此，非洲已经从香烟净进口国转变为净出口国。与此同时，随着烟草业战略性地将某些国家确定为生产中心，香烟生产变得更加集中。
通过提高监测质量来监测香烟的生产、消费和贸易，不仅对了解非洲而且对全球的香烟需求和供应都很有必要。
