Filby Samantha
Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products (REEP), School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2025 Mar 24;27(4):611-619. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntae097.
Reducing cigarette affordability is paramount for reducing cigarette consumption. Measuring affordability requires data on cigarette prices. Unlike the commonly used retail price of a 20-pack of the most-sold cigarette domestically, survey-derived cigarette prices reflect differences arising from the brand variety and the types of packaging in which cigarettes are purchased.
This paper uses self-reported cigarette price data from the eight African countries that have implemented the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) to construct country-level Relative Income Prices. The relationship between cigarette affordability, cigarette smoking prevalence, and cigarette smoking intensity, is examined using logit models for smoking participation (N = 51 122) and generalized linear models for conditional cigarette demand (N = 2443). GATS data are also used to produce nationally representative estimates of the prevalence of single-stick cigarette purchases in the sampled countries.
The estimated affordability elasticity of cigarette smoking participation is -0.245 (95% CI = -0.411 to -0.078). The estimated affordability elasticity of smoking intensity is -0.155 (95% CI = -0.286 to -0.023). Single-stick cigarette sales dominate all-markets. The proportion of smokers who reported buying cigarettes in the form of single sticks during their most recent cigarette purchase exceeds 90% in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.
The results point to the need for governments in the countries sampled to increase excise taxes in a manner that renders cigarettes less affordable over time, and to enact and enforce legislation that prohibits the sale of single cigarettes. These findings highlight that measures to reduce both the demand and supply of cigarettes will be required to reduce their use in the region.
This study is the first to examine the prevalence of single-stick cigarette purchases, and the association between cigarette affordability and smoking outcomes, in the African setting, using data from the GATS. Findings provide local evidence for the countries sampled, which represent over half of sub-Saharan Africa's adult population (aged 15 and older), on the importance of implementing excise tax increases that reduce cigarette affordability over time. They also highlight the need to enact and enforce legislation that prohibits the sale of single cigarettes.
降低香烟可承受性对于减少香烟消费至关重要。衡量可承受性需要香烟价格数据。与国内最畅销的20支装香烟的常用零售价格不同，通过调查得出的香烟价格反映了因品牌种类和购买香烟的包装类型而产生的差异。
本文使用来自实施了全球成人烟草调查（GATS）的八个非洲国家的自我报告香烟价格数据来构建国家层面的相对收入价格。使用吸烟参与情况的logit模型（N = 51122）和条件香烟需求的广义线性模型（N = 2443）来研究香烟可承受性、吸烟流行率和吸烟强度之间的关系。GATS数据还用于对抽样国家中单支香烟购买流行率进行全国代表性估计。
估计吸烟参与的可承受性弹性为 -0.245（95%置信区间 = -0.411至 -0.078）。估计吸烟强度的可承受性弹性为 -0.155（95%置信区间 = -0.286至 -0.023）。单支香烟销售主导所有市场。在肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚和乌干达，报告在最近一次购买香烟时以单支形式购买的吸烟者比例超过90%。
结果表明，抽样国家的政府需要以一种随着时间推移使香烟更难负担得起的方式提高消费税，并制定和执行禁止销售单支香烟的立法。这些发现凸显了需要采取措施减少香烟的需求和供应，以减少该地区的香烟使用。
本研究首次利用GATS数据在非洲背景下研究单支香烟购买的流行率以及香烟可承受性与吸烟结果之间的关联。研究结果为抽样国家提供了本地证据，这些国家代表了撒哈拉以南非洲超过一半的成年人口（15岁及以上），证明了随着时间推移实施能降低香烟可承受性的消费税上调的重要性。它们还强调了制定和执行禁止销售单支香烟的立法的必要性。
