Abreu Débora Regina de Oliveira Moura, Souza Eniuce Menezes de, Mathias Thais Aidar de Freitas
Departamento de Enfermagem, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, Brasil.
Cad Saude Publica. 2018 Aug 20;34(8):e00122117. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00122117.
The objective was to analyze the impact of the Brazilian Traffic Code and the Law Against Drinking and Driving on mortality from traffic accidents in the State of Paraná, Brazil, from 1980 to 2014. This was an ecological time series study on mortality from traffic accidents in residents 15 to 49 years of age, stratified by the sex, age, and categories of victims, with data from the Mortality Information System. The time trend study used a segmented linear regression model and the Cochrane-Orcutt iterative procedure. The assumption of independence of residuals was verified by correlograms and the Box-Pierce test. The highest mortality rates during the period were in males 20 to 29 years of age. After enactment of the Brazilian Traffic Code, there was a decrease of 9.69 deaths/100,000 inhabitants per year for all categories of traffic accidents (p < 0.001), 6.90 for pedestrians (p = 0.001), and 1.96 for vehicle occupants (p < 0.001). As for age bracket, the greatest impact on mortality was in pedestrians 15 to 19 years of age (p < 0.001) and all victims 20 to 29 years of age (p < 0.001). Following enactment of the Drinking and Driving Law, the data displayed variability and the trends were not significant. However, there was a decrease in overall and pedestrian mortality. The rates for motorcyclists and vehicle occupants stabilized. The results showed an impact on traffic accident mortality after enactment of the new Brazilian Traffic Code and Drinking and Driving Law, followed by an increase in the rates. The study evidenced the need for more effective enforcement and progress with public policies in order to avoid a reversal of the gains achieved.
目的是分析1980年至2014年巴西《交通法典》和《反酒后驾车法》对巴西巴拉那州交通事故死亡率的影响。这是一项关于15至49岁居民交通事故死亡率的生态时间序列研究，按性别、年龄和受害者类别分层，数据来自死亡率信息系统。时间趋势研究采用分段线性回归模型和科克伦-奥科特迭代程序。通过自相关图和博克斯-皮尔斯检验验证残差独立性假设。该时期死亡率最高的是20至29岁的男性。巴西《交通法典》颁布后，各类交通事故的死亡率每年下降9.69/10万居民（p<0.001），行人死亡率下降6.90（p=0.001），车内乘客死亡率下降1.96（p<0.001）。至于年龄组，对死亡率影响最大的是15至19岁的行人（p<0.001）和所有20至29岁的受害者（p<0.001）。《酒后驾车法》颁布后，数据呈现出变异性，趋势不显著。然而，总体和行人死亡率有所下降。摩托车手和车内乘客的死亡率趋于稳定。结果显示，新的巴西《交通法典》和《酒后驾车法》颁布后对交通事故死亡率产生了影响，随后死亡率有所上升。该研究证明需要更有效地执行并推进公共政策，以避免所取得的成果出现逆转。
