Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom.
Department of Economics and IEI, Jaume I University, Castellón, Spain.
PLoS One. 2018 Aug 28;13(8):e0201798. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201798. eCollection 2018.
The paper investigates and compares the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty under inflation targeting and, alternatively, a conventional fixed exchange rate system, for a group of emerging countries. To do so we estimate GARCH in mean models and we find that there is a bi-directional relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty under the two monetary regimes. It is also found that the fixed exchange rate regime has no impact on average inflation and inflation inertia, while inflation targeting has been successful at lowering both average inflation and inflation persistence.
本文考察并比较了通胀目标制和传统固定汇率制下通胀和通胀不确定性之间的关系，并选择了一组新兴国家作为研究对象。为此，我们估计了均值 GARCH 模型，并发现两种货币制度下通胀和通胀不确定性之间存在双向关系。还发现，固定汇率制度对平均通胀和通胀惯性没有影响，而通胀目标制则成功降低了平均通胀和通胀持续性。
