School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
University of Science & Technology Beijing, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2019 Apr 18;14(4):e0215366. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215366. eCollection 2019.
Since the late 1990s, particularly since the global financial crisis, the core inflation of main developed economies' has been persistently below target. The factors hindering the achievement of inflation targets are nothing more than commodity price, oil supply, weakness of aggregate demand, and various other factors. In addition, technology and globalization have also played a significant role. This paper uses an extended hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model to quantify the contribution of technology and globalization variables to inflation in the United States (U.S.). The analysis suggests that technology and globalization well explain the low inflation dynamics in the U.S., as the impact of globalization on domestic inflation has been weakening over the past 20 years or so, while the impact of technology on inflation has been increasing. At present, technology exerts a greater role than globalization on low-inflation in the U.S.. This raises a different perspective for understanding the phenomenon of low inflation in the U.S. and other regions.
自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，特别是自全球金融危机以来，主要发达经济体的核心通胀率一直持续低于目标。阻碍通胀目标实现的因素无非是商品价格、石油供应、总需求疲软以及其他各种因素。此外，技术和全球化也起到了重要作用。本文利用扩展的混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线（NKPC）模型，对技术和全球化变量对美国（U.S.）通胀的贡献进行量化分析。分析表明，技术和全球化很好地解释了美国低通胀的动态，因为全球化对国内通胀的影响在过去 20 年左右一直在减弱，而技术对通胀的影响一直在增强。目前，技术对美国低通胀的影响大于全球化。这为理解美国和其他地区低通胀现象提供了一个不同的视角。
