University of Aarhus, Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, PO Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark; Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Kivioq 2, PO Box 570, Nuuk 3900, Greenland.
Dep. of Environmental Research and Monitoring, Swedish Museum of Natural History, PO Box 50 007, S-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 1;649:99-110. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.268. Epub 2018 Aug 23.
More than 1000 time-series of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Arctic biota from marine and freshwater ecosystems some extending back to the beginning of 1980s were analyzed using a robust statistical method. The Arctic area encompassed extended from Alaska, USA in the west to northern Scandinavian in the east, with data gaps for Arctic Russia and Arctic Finland. The aim was to investigate whether temporal trends for different animal groups and matrices were consistent across a larger geographical area. In general, legacy POPs showed decreasing concentrations over the last two to three decades, which were most pronounced for α-HCH and least pronounced for HCB and β-HCH. Few time-series of legacy POPs showed increasing trends and only at sites suspected to be influenced by local source. The brominated flame retardant congener BDE-47 showed a typical trend of increasing concentration up to approximately the mid-2000s followed by a decreasing concentration. A similar trend was found for perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS). These trends are likely related to the relatively recent introduction of national and international controls of hexa- and hepta-BDE congeners and the voluntary phase-out of PFOS production in the USA in 2000. Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD) was the only compound in this study showing a consistent increasing trend. Only 12% of the long-term time-series were able to detect a 5% annual change with a statistical power of 80% at α < 0.05. The remaining 88% of time-series need additional years of data collection before fulfilling these statistical requirements. In the case of the organochlorine long-term time-series, 45% of these would require >20 years monitoring before this requirement would be fulfilled.
利用稳健的统计方法,分析了来自海洋和淡水生态系统的北极生物群中超过 1000 个持久性有机污染物(POPs)的时间序列,这些时间序列可以追溯到 20 世纪 80 年代初。所涵盖的北极地区从美国的阿拉斯加向西延伸到斯堪的纳维亚的北部,在俄罗斯北极和芬兰北极存在数据空白。目的是调查不同动物群体和基质的时间趋势是否在更大的地理区域内一致。一般来说,过去的 POPs 在过去的二三十年中呈下降趋势,其中α-HCH 最为明显,HCB 和β-HCH 则不太明显。只有少数过去的 POPs 时间序列显示出上升趋势,而且只出现在疑似受局部来源影响的地点。溴代阻燃剂同系物 BDE-47 表现出典型的浓度上升趋势,直到 2000 年代中期左右,随后浓度下降。全氟辛烷磺酸 (PFOS) 也出现了类似的趋势。这些趋势可能与六溴环十二烷和七溴环十二烷同系物的国家和国际管制以及 2000 年美国自愿停止生产 PFOS 有关。六溴环十二烷(HBCDD)是本研究中唯一显示出一致上升趋势的化合物。只有 12%的长期时间序列能够以 80%的统计功效在 α < 0.05 时检测到 5%的年变化。其余 88%的时间序列需要额外的几年数据收集才能满足这些统计要求。在有机氯长期时间序列的情况下,其中 45%需要 >20 年的监测才能满足这些要求。