School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China; Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, NJ 08901, USA.
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 1;649:335-343. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.326. Epub 2018 Aug 27.
To mitigate global carbon dioxide (CO) emissions in an effective manner, it is essential to identify the driving forces and estimate the reduction potential of changes to CO emissions. Using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, this study decomposes the changes in global emissions between 1980 and 2015 with consideration of different income levels; it also reports on scenario analysis of the global emissions reduction potential up to the year 2030 to explore feasible mitigation pathways. The results suggest that the key driving force responsible for promoting global emissions from 1980 through 2015 is income, while energy intensity is the most significant factor in inhibiting global emissions. Furthermore, the countries with the largest reductions in global emissions are mainly upper-middle-income (UMI) countries. The key driving forces of emissions changes in countries with different income levels offer mixed results. In addition, the forecast results indicate that the future emissions reduction potential across the globe is significant and that UMI countries offer the greatest emissions mitigation potential. Finally, this study provides several targeted policy suggestions for reducing emissions across the globe.
为了有效缓解全球二氧化碳（CO）排放，必须明确 CO 排放变化的驱动因素并估算减排潜力。本研究采用扩展对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法，在考虑不同收入水平的基础上，对 1980 年至 2015 年期间全球排放量的变化进行分解，并报告了 2030 年前全球减排潜力的情景分析，以探索可行的减排途径。结果表明，推动全球排放从 1980 年增长到 2015 年的关键驱动因素是收入，而能源强度则是抑制全球排放的最重要因素。此外，全球排放量降幅最大的国家主要是上中等收入（UMI）国家。不同收入水平国家的排放变化关键驱动因素的结果则各不相同。此外，预测结果表明，全球未来的减排潜力巨大，UMI 国家的减排潜力最大。最后，本研究为全球减排提供了有针对性的政策建议。
