School of Medicine and Health Management, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Sep 7;15(9):1953. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15091953.
Differing from previous studies ignoring the nonlinear features, this study employs both the linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the complex causal relationship between health care expenditure and economic growth among 15 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and 5 major developing countries. Some interesting findings can be obtained as follows: (1) For Australia, Austria, and UK, linear and nonlinear Granger causality does not exist between them. A unidirectional linear or nonlinear causality running from economic growth to health care expenditure can be found for Ireland, Korea, Portugal, and India. For these seven countries, health or fiscal policy related to health spending will not have an impact on economic growth; (2) For Belgium, Norway, and Mexico, only a unidirectional linear causality runs from health care expenditure to economic growth, while bidirectional linear causality can be found for Canada, Finland, Iceland, New Zealand, Spain, Brazil, and South Africa. Especially for the US, China, and Japan, a unidirectional nonlinear causality exists from health spending to economic growth. To improve the quality of national health, life quality and happiness, these 13 countries should actively look to optimise policy related to health care expenditure, such as by enhancing the efficiency of health costs to promote sustainable economic development.
与之前忽略非线性特征的研究不同，本研究采用线性和非线性格兰杰因果检验来考察经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的 15 个成员国和 5 个主要发展中国家的医疗保健支出与经济增长之间的复杂因果关系。有如下一些有趣的发现：（1）对于澳大利亚、奥地利和英国，它们之间不存在线性和非线性格兰杰因果关系。爱尔兰、韩国、葡萄牙和印度存在从经济增长到医疗保健支出的单向线性或非线性因果关系。对于这七个国家，与医疗支出相关的卫生或财政政策不会对经济增长产生影响；（2）对于比利时、挪威和墨西哥，只有从医疗保健支出到经济增长的单向线性因果关系，而加拿大、芬兰、冰岛、新西兰、西班牙、巴西和南非则存在双向线性因果关系。特别是对于美国、中国和日本，存在从医疗支出到经济增长的单向非线性因果关系。为了提高国家卫生质量、生活质量和幸福感，这 13 个国家应积极优化与医疗保健支出相关的政策，例如通过提高卫生费用效率来促进可持续经济发展。
