Menyhárt Otília, Fekete János T, Győrffy Balázs
MTA TTK Lendület Cancer Biomarker Research Group, Institute of Enzymology, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary,
2nd Department of Pediatrics, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary,
Clin Epidemiol. 2018 Aug 29;10:1093-1108. doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S155063. eCollection 2018.
Population aging is a common demographic pattern in developed countries, and aging increases the risk of cancer. The disproportionately high cancer burden, as a consequence, is especially pronounced in Central and Eastern European countries, including Hungary.
We summarized current and projected future cancer incidences and mortalities utilizing data from the last two decades. Predictions are based on cancer incidence and mortality collected between 1996 and 2015 in Hungary. In addition to the crude rates, data were age standardized to the European standard population (ESP) of 2013, ESP of 1976, and local census of 2011.
The lifetime probability of developing cancer and cancer-related mortality has already reached 56.9% and 27.6% in men, respectively, and 51.9% and 21.7% in women. Between 2016 and 2030, the total population is expected to shrink by 6%, while the number of 60-year olds and above will grow by 18%. This will lead to a 35% increase in cancer incidence and 30% increase in cancer death among 65-85-year olds. Joinpoint regression identified the period 2007-2015 as starting point for this coming increase in new cases. In women, lung and breast cancer will increase yearly by 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively, between 2016 and 2030, while in men, the prostate and colorectal cancer rates will increase yearly by 3.6% and 2.1%.
In the aging population of Hungary, cancer incidence will increase considerably over previous projections. Although a large portion of the most rapidly rising cancers are avoidable by implementing public health programs, a substantial portion remains inevitably incurable.
人口老龄化是发达国家常见的人口结构模式,老龄化会增加患癌风险。因此,包括匈牙利在内的中东欧国家癌症负担过高的情况尤为明显。
我们利用过去二十年的数据总结了当前及预计未来的癌症发病率和死亡率。预测基于1996年至2015年匈牙利收集的癌症发病率和死亡率。除了粗发病率外,数据还按2013年欧洲标准人口(ESP)、1976年ESP以及2011年当地人口普查数据进行了年龄标准化。
男性患癌的终生概率和癌症相关死亡率分别已达到56.9%和27.6%,女性分别为51.9%和21.7%。2016年至2030年期间,预计总人口将减少6%,而60岁及以上人口数量将增长18%。这将导致65 - 85岁人群的癌症发病率增加35%,癌症死亡人数增加30%。连接点回归确定2007 - 2015年期间是新病例即将增加的起始点。2016年至2030年期间,女性肺癌和乳腺癌发病率将分别以每年1.9%和1.7%的速度增长,而男性前列腺癌和结直肠癌发病率将分别以每年3.6%和2.1%的速度增长。
在匈牙利老龄化人口中,癌症发病率将比先前预测有大幅增加。尽管通过实施公共卫生项目可避免很大一部分增长迅速的癌症,但仍有很大一部分癌症不可避免地无法治愈。