Suppr超能文献

人口结构转变在老龄化国家中不成比例地增加了癌症负担:匈牙利截至2030年的当前及预期发病率和死亡率

Demographic shift disproportionately increases cancer burden in an aging nation: current and expected incidence and mortality in Hungary up to 2030.

作者信息

Menyhárt Otília, Fekete János T, Győrffy Balázs

机构信息

MTA TTK Lendület Cancer Biomarker Research Group, Institute of Enzymology, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary,

2nd Department of Pediatrics, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary,

出版信息

Clin Epidemiol. 2018 Aug 29;10:1093-1108. doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S155063. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Population aging is a common demographic pattern in developed countries, and aging increases the risk of cancer. The disproportionately high cancer burden, as a consequence, is especially pronounced in Central and Eastern European countries, including Hungary.

METHODS

We summarized current and projected future cancer incidences and mortalities utilizing data from the last two decades. Predictions are based on cancer incidence and mortality collected between 1996 and 2015 in Hungary. In addition to the crude rates, data were age standardized to the European standard population (ESP) of 2013, ESP of 1976, and local census of 2011.

RESULTS

The lifetime probability of developing cancer and cancer-related mortality has already reached 56.9% and 27.6% in men, respectively, and 51.9% and 21.7% in women. Between 2016 and 2030, the total population is expected to shrink by 6%, while the number of 60-year olds and above will grow by 18%. This will lead to a 35% increase in cancer incidence and 30% increase in cancer death among 65-85-year olds. Joinpoint regression identified the period 2007-2015 as starting point for this coming increase in new cases. In women, lung and breast cancer will increase yearly by 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively, between 2016 and 2030, while in men, the prostate and colorectal cancer rates will increase yearly by 3.6% and 2.1%.

CONCLUSION

In the aging population of Hungary, cancer incidence will increase considerably over previous projections. Although a large portion of the most rapidly rising cancers are avoidable by implementing public health programs, a substantial portion remains inevitably incurable.

摘要

背景

人口老龄化是发达国家常见的人口结构模式,老龄化会增加患癌风险。因此,包括匈牙利在内的中东欧国家癌症负担过高的情况尤为明显。

方法

我们利用过去二十年的数据总结了当前及预计未来的癌症发病率和死亡率。预测基于1996年至2015年匈牙利收集的癌症发病率和死亡率。除了粗发病率外,数据还按2013年欧洲标准人口(ESP)、1976年ESP以及2011年当地人口普查数据进行了年龄标准化。

结果

男性患癌的终生概率和癌症相关死亡率分别已达到56.9%和27.6%,女性分别为51.9%和21.7%。2016年至2030年期间,预计总人口将减少6%,而60岁及以上人口数量将增长18%。这将导致65 - 85岁人群的癌症发病率增加35%,癌症死亡人数增加30%。连接点回归确定2007 - 2015年期间是新病例即将增加的起始点。2016年至2030年期间,女性肺癌和乳腺癌发病率将分别以每年1.9%和1.7%的速度增长,而男性前列腺癌和结直肠癌发病率将分别以每年3.6%和2.1%的速度增长。

结论

在匈牙利老龄化人口中,癌症发病率将比先前预测有大幅增加。尽管通过实施公共卫生项目可避免很大一部分增长迅速的癌症,但仍有很大一部分癌症不可避免地无法治愈。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0314/6121756/4b4c7eb7a024/clep-10-1093Fig4.jpg

相似文献

2
Estimates of cancer incidence and mortality in Europe in 1995.
Eur J Cancer. 2002 Jan;38(1):99-166. doi: 10.1016/s0959-8049(01)00350-1.
3
Population aging and cancer: a cross-national concern.
Cancer J. 2005 Nov-Dec;11(6):437-41. doi: 10.1097/00130404-200511000-00002.
4
Revising Incidence and Mortality of Lung Cancer in Central Europe: An Epidemiology Review From Hungary.
Front Oncol. 2019 Oct 23;9:1051. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2019.01051. eCollection 2019.
5
Italian cancer figures--Report 2015: The burden of rare cancers in Italy.
Epidemiol Prev. 2016 Jan-Feb;40(1 Suppl 2):1-120. doi: 10.19191/EP16.1S2.P001.035.
6
Burden of cancer and changing cancer spectrum among older adults in China: Trends and projections to 2030.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2022 Feb;76:102068. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2021.102068. Epub 2021 Dec 2.
7
Cancer incidence and mortality in France over the period 1978-2000.
Rev Epidemiol Sante Publique. 2003 Feb;51(1 Pt 1):3-30.
9
Italian cancer figures, report 2012: Cancer in children and adolescents.
Epidemiol Prev. 2013 Jan-Feb;37(1 Suppl 1):1-225.

引用本文的文献

5
Therapeutic and immunomodulatory role of probiotics in breast cancer: A mechanistic review.
Arch Microbiol. 2023 Jul 24;205(8):296. doi: 10.1007/s00203-023-03632-7.
6
Molecular Screening for Urothelial Cancer: How Close We Are?
Glob Med Genet. 2023 May 23;10(2):101-104. doi: 10.1055/s-0043-1768958. eCollection 2023 Jun.
7
Editorial: Aging and chronic disease: public health challenge and education reform.
Front Public Health. 2023 May 9;11:1175898. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1175898. eCollection 2023.
8
Breast Tumor Tissue Segmentation with Area-Based Annotation Using Convolutional Neural Network.
Diagnostics (Basel). 2022 Sep 6;12(9):2161. doi: 10.3390/diagnostics12092161.

本文引用的文献

1
The cost and burden of cancer in the European Union 1995-2014.
Eur J Cancer. 2016 Oct;66:162-70. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2016.06.022. Epub 2016 Aug 31.
2
Risk factors for lung cancer worldwide.
Eur Respir J. 2016 Sep;48(3):889-902. doi: 10.1183/13993003.00359-2016. Epub 2016 May 12.
3
Cancer statistics, 2016.
CA Cancer J Clin. 2016 Jan-Feb;66(1):7-30. doi: 10.3322/caac.21332. Epub 2016 Jan 7.
5
Hospital autopsy: Endangered or extinct?
J Clin Pathol. 2015 Aug;68(8):601-4. doi: 10.1136/jclinpath-2014-202700. Epub 2015 Jun 15.
6
Cancer incidence and mortality in the Czech Republic.
Klin Onkol. 2014;27(6):406-23. doi: 10.14735/amko2014406.
7
Cancer incidence and mortality worldwide: sources, methods and major patterns in GLOBOCAN 2012.
Int J Cancer. 2015 Mar 1;136(5):E359-86. doi: 10.1002/ijc.29210. Epub 2014 Oct 9.
8
A public health threat in Hungary: obesity, 2013.
BMC Public Health. 2014 Aug 5;14:798. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-798.
9
Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: estimates for 40 countries in 2012.
Eur J Cancer. 2013 Apr;49(6):1374-403. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2012.12.027. Epub 2013 Feb 26.
10
Lung cancer mortality in European men: trends and predictions.
Lung Cancer. 2013 May;80(2):138-45. doi: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2013.01.020. Epub 2013 Feb 20.

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验