Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Liver Int. 2022 Oct;42(10):2299-2316. doi: 10.1111/liv.15357. Epub 2022 Jul 9.
This study aims to compare estimates of primary liver cancer mortality from World Health Organization (WHO), Global Burden Disease (GBD) and Global Cancer Observatory (GCO).
Liver cancer mortality was extracted from WHO, GBD and GCO for 92 countries for the most recent year. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was computed and used for current comparisons across the three data sources. Temporal trend for 75 countries was analysed and compared between WHO and GBD from 1990 to 2019 using joinpoint regression. Average annual percentage change for the most recent 10 years was used as indicator for change.
The estimates of ASR were quite consistent across the three data sources, but most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO in both region and country levels. The differences in ASR were negatively correlated with completeness of cause-of-death registration, human development index and proportion of liver cancer because of alcohol consumption. Consistent trends of ASR were found from 35 countries between WHO and GBD in the most recent 10 years. However, opposite trends were found from 10 countries with five from Southern America, four from Europe and one from Asia. Of the 18 countries for projection, opposite trends between WHO and GBD were found from seven countries.
While the ASR of primary liver cancer mortality was comparable across the three data sources, most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO. The opposite trends found from 10 countries between WHO and GBD raised concerns of true patterns in these countries.
本研究旨在比较世界卫生组织（WHO）、全球疾病负担（GBD）和全球癌症观测站（GCO）对原发性肝癌死亡率的估计。
从 WHO、GBD 和 GCO 中提取了 92 个国家最近一年的肝癌死亡率数据。计算了年龄标准化率（ASR），并用于当前在这三个数据源之间进行比较。分析了 75 个国家的时间趋势，并使用 joinpoint 回归比较了 1990 年至 2019 年 WHO 和 GBD 之间的趋势。使用最近 10 年的平均年变化百分比作为变化的指标。
三个数据源的 ASR 估计值相当一致，但在区域和国家层面，WHO 和 GCO 的估计值最为相似。ASR 的差异与死因登记完整性、人类发展指数和因酒精消费导致的肝癌比例呈负相关。在最近 10 年，WHO 和 GBD 在 35 个国家之间发现了 ASR 的一致趋势。然而，在 10 个国家中发现了相反的趋势，其中 5 个来自南美洲，4 个来自欧洲，1 个来自亚洲。在 18 个预测国家中，WHO 和 GBD 之间发现了 7 个国家的趋势相反。
尽管原发性肝癌死亡率的 ASR 在三个数据源之间具有可比性，但 WHO 和 GCO 之间的估计值最为相似。WHO 和 GBD 在 10 个国家之间发现的相反趋势引起了对这些国家真实模式的关注。
