中国 20 项最重要和最可预防的健康问题：中国专家德尔菲咨询。
The 20 Most Important and Most Preventable Health Problems of China: A Delphi Consultation of Chinese Experts.
机构信息
Yangfeng Wu, Aoming Jin, Gaoqiang Xie, and Guang Jia are with the Peking University Clinical Research Institute, Beijing, China. Lei Wang and Jianguo Xu are with the State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing. Kaitai Liu is with the National Institute for Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing. Xiaofeng Liang is with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2018 Dec;108(12):1592-1598. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304684. Epub 2018 Oct 25.
OBJECTIVES
To identify the 20 most important and most preventable health problems that should be addressed in the next 20 years in China.
METHODS
In 2015, we applied a modified electronic Delphi technique to reach consensus from a panel of top Chinese health experts (n = 70), who were requested to identify 20 health problems that, in their judgment, were most important and preventable. We also compared the results with evidences from epidemiological studies on disease-specific mortalities and disability-adjusted life years.
RESULTS
Consensus was reached after the second-round survey. The final agreed-upon 20 most important and most preventable health problems included 9 noncommunicable diseases, 4 communicable diseases, 2 unhealthy behaviors, and 2 forms of environmental pollution, plus depression, road injury, and contamination of food with pesticides, antibiotics, and hormone residues. The results are supported by relevant epidemiological studies in China.
CONCLUSIONS
The 20 most important and most preventable health problems in China for the next 20 years, agreed upon by a panel of top Chinese health experts, should be taken into consideration in national policymaking.
目的
确定未来 20 年中国应解决的 20 个最重要和最可预防的健康问题。
方法
2015 年，我们应用改良电子德尔菲技术，从一组中国顶级卫生专家（n=70）中达成共识，要求他们确定 20 个在他们判断中最重要和可预防的健康问题。我们还将结果与疾病特异性死亡率和伤残调整生命年的流行病学研究证据进行了比较。
结果
第二轮调查后达成了共识。最终商定的 20 个最重要和最可预防的健康问题包括 9 种非传染性疾病、4 种传染病、2 种不良行为和 2 种形式的环境污染，以及抑郁症、道路伤害和农药、抗生素和激素残留污染的食物。这些结果得到了中国相关流行病学研究的支持。
结论
由中国顶级卫生专家组成的专家组一致认为，未来 20 年中国最重要和最可预防的 20 个健康问题应纳入国家决策制定。
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