Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, 650091, Kunming, China.
Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Matsunosato 1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-8687, Japan.
Nat Commun. 2018 Oct 26;9(1):4488. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-06837-3.
Today East Asia harbors many "relict" plant species whose ranges were much larger during the Paleogene-Neogene and earlier. The ecological and climatic conditions suitable for these relict species have not been identified. Here, we map the abundance and distribution patterns of relict species, showing high abundance in the humid subtropical/warm-temperate forest regions. We further use Ecological Niche Modeling to show that these patterns align with maps of climate refugia, and we predict species' chances of persistence given the future climatic changes expected for East Asia. By 2070, potentially suitable areas with high richness of relict species will decrease, although the areas as a whole will probably expand. We identify areas in southwestern China and northern Vietnam as long-term climatically stable refugia likely to preserve ancient lineages, highlighting areas that could be prioritized for conservation of such species.
如今，东亚地区拥有许多“孑遗”植物物种，它们在古近纪-新近纪及更早时期的分布范围要大得多。这些孑遗物种适宜的生态和气候条件尚未确定。在这里，我们绘制了孑遗物种的丰度和分布模式图，显示出在潮湿的亚热带/暖温带森林地区丰度较高。我们进一步利用生态位模型(Ecological Niche Modeling)表明，这些模式与气候避难所的地图相吻合，我们还预测了这些物种在东亚未来气候变化预期下的生存机会。到 2070 年，尽管整体面积可能会扩大，但高丰富度的孑遗物种潜在适宜区域将会减少。我们确定了中国西南部和越南北部的一些地区为长期气候稳定的避难所，这些地区可能会保存古老的谱系，突出了这些物种可能需要优先保护的地区。
