Li Yuepeng, An Qi, Sun Zhuo, Gao Xiang, Wang Hongbin
College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China.
Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2023 May 11;2023:6207149. doi: 10.1155/2023/6207149. eCollection 2023.
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an emerging transboundary infectious disease of animals with high morbidity and low mortality rates. The infection occurs in cattle, buffalo, and some closely related wild animals, with cattle and buffalo showing higher susceptibility than other species. The primary mode of disease transmission is the mechanical dispersion of bloodsucking insects. The disease symptoms, including animal fur damage, weight loss, decline in milk production, infertility, and miscarriage, lead to huge economic losses in regions and countries with LSD outbreaks. The present study aimed to analyze the incidence data of LSD in the Asian continent from January 2012 to September 2022, identify spatiotemporal clusters and risk factors of the disease, and establish a maximum entropy ecological niche model to predict high-risk areas for disease outbreaks. The studied variables included bioclimatic factors, land type, and population density. Following the screening process, 12 variables were included in the maximum entropy model. Among them, the variable contribution rates of cattle density, land cover, isothermality, buffalo density, and maximum temperature of the warmest month were 53.8%, 10.9%, 9.2%, 8.9%, and 8%, respectively. Accounting for more than 90% of the total variable contribution rate, these five variables were considered to be the important influencing factors of LSD outbreaks. According to the results, nine spatiotemporal clusters approximately matched the high-risk areas predicted by the model. The Caucasus region of Russia; the Russian border areas of Kazakhstan, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Israel; and the western regions of Iran, India, and Southeast Asia were predicted to be high-risk areas. Thus, this study provides the spatiotemporal clusters, risk factors, and high-risk areas of LSD outbreaks in the Asian continent, which can help formulate more effective disease prevention and control policies.
结节性皮肤病（LSD）是一种新出现的动物跨界传染病，发病率高但死亡率低。感染发生在牛、水牛和一些亲缘关系密切的野生动物身上，牛和水牛比其他物种更易感染。疾病的主要传播方式是吸血昆虫的机械传播。该病症状包括动物皮毛受损、体重减轻、产奶量下降、不孕和流产，在发生LSD疫情的地区和国家造成了巨大经济损失。本研究旨在分析2012年1月至2022年9月亚洲大陆LSD的发病数据，确定该病的时空聚集性和风险因素，并建立最大熵生态位模型以预测疾病爆发的高危地区。研究变量包括生物气候因素、土地类型和人口密度。经过筛选过程，12个变量被纳入最大熵模型。其中，牛密度、土地覆盖、等温性、水牛密度和最暖月最高温度的变量贡献率分别为53.8%、10.9%、9.2%、8.9%和8%。这五个变量占总变量贡献率的90%以上，被认为是LSD爆发的重要影响因素。根据结果，九个时空聚集区大致与模型预测的高危地区相符。俄罗斯的高加索地区；哈萨克斯坦、土耳其、叙利亚、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦和以色列的俄罗斯边境地区；以及伊朗、印度和东南亚的西部地区被预测为高危地区。因此，本研究提供了亚洲大陆LSD爆发的时空聚集性、风险因素和高危地区，有助于制定更有效的疾病防控政策。
Zotero 插件
