Zhang Xueyou, Mei Hongyan, Nie Peixiao, Hu Xiaokang, Feng Jianmeng
College of Agriculture and Biological Science, Dali University, Dali 671003, China.
Research Center for Agroecology in Erhai Lake Watershed, Dali University, Dali 671003, China.
Insects. 2025 Apr 30;16(5):476. doi: 10.3390/insects16050476.
mosquitoes (Diptera, Culicidae) are the major vectors for many mosquito-borne diseases. Here, we retrieved 878,954 global occurrences of 29 mosquito species and 30 candidate predictors at a global scale. We created a unified frame and built 29 multi-algorithm species distribution models to project the ranges and overlapped them to examine the range-overlap hotspots under future scenarios. We detected expanded ranges in most mosquito species, and a substantial increase in the index of habitat suitability overlap was detected in more than 70% of the global terrestrial area, particularly in Europe, North America, and Africa. We also identified extensive range overlap, which increased in future scenarios. Climatic factors had a more significant influence on range dynamics than other variables. The expanded ranges of most mosquito species and the substantial increase in the overlap index of habitat suitability in most regions suggest globally increasing threats of -borne epidemic transmission. Thus, much stricter strategies must be implemented, particularly in Europe, North America, and Africa. As climate change increases habitat suitability and expands ranges in most mosquito species, mitigating future climate change will be a key approach to combatting their impacts.
蚊子（双翅目，蚊科）是许多蚊媒疾病的主要传播媒介。在此，我们在全球范围内检索了29种蚊子的878,954个全球分布记录以及30个候选预测因子。我们创建了一个统一框架，并构建了29个多算法物种分布模型来预测分布范围，并将它们重叠以检查未来情景下的范围重叠热点。我们检测到大多数蚊子物种的分布范围扩大，并且在全球超过70%的陆地面积中检测到栖息地适宜性重叠指数大幅增加，特别是在欧洲、北美和非洲。我们还识别出广泛的范围重叠，这种重叠在未来情景中有所增加。气候因素对分布范围动态的影响比其他变量更为显著。大多数蚊子物种分布范围的扩大以及大多数地区栖息地适宜性重叠指数的大幅增加表明蚊媒疾病传播的全球威胁正在增加。因此，必须实施更为严格的策略，特别是在欧洲、北美和非洲。随着气候变化增加了大多数蚊子物种的栖息地适宜性并扩大了其分布范围，缓解未来气候变化将是应对其影响的关键途径。
