Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
Botanic Institute of Barcelona (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), Passeig del Migdia s/n, Barcelona 08038, Spain.
Sci Rep. 2017 Mar 8;7:43822. doi: 10.1038/srep43822.
This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.
本研究使用物种分布模型（涉及一种允许存在不确定性的新方法），预测了中全新世、末次冰期最大值（LGM）和当前气候适宜区的分布情况，并估计了珍稀渐危种第三纪孑遗植物珙桐在 2070 年潜在的新栖息地形成情况。关于中全新世和末次冰期最大值的结果表明，中国中南部和西南部一直是长期稳定的避难所，而目前的分布范围仅限于史前避难所。在六种可能的气候情景下，未来的分布情况表明，仅中国中南部和西南部中高海拔地区的珙桐当前分布范围的一部分将得以维持，而部分地区会向西迁移到更高的山区。研究结果表明，预测的未来（2070 年）高概率（0.5-1）的适宜区预测模型平均仅占 29.2%，表明珙桐极容易受到影响。我们根据气候变化评估并提出了优先保护区建议。所提供的信息也将与其他具有与珙桐类似生态特征和分布范围的古特有物种的保护规划相关。
