Long-term follow-up of HIV-2-related AIDS and mortality in Guinea-Bissau: a prospective open cohort study.

BACKGROUND

HIV type 2 (HIV-2) is considered more benign and has fewer pathogenic consequences than HIV type 1 (HIV-1) for most infected individuals. However, reliable estimates of time to AIDS and mortality among those with HIV-2 infection are absent. We therefore aimed to compare the time to AIDS and mortality, and the CD4 T-cell dynamics between those infected with HIV-1 and HIV-2.

METHODS

We did a prospective open cohort study. We included all police officers with regular employment from police stations in both urban and rural areas of Guinea-Bissau since Feb 6, 1990. We continued to include participants until Sept 28, 2009, and follow-up of HIV-1-positive and HIV-2-positive individuals continued until Sept 28, 2013. We collected blood samples at enrolment and at scheduled annual follow-up visits at police stations. We analysed longitudinal data from individuals infected with HIV-1 and HIV-2 according to time to AIDS, time to death, and T-cell dynamics. Time of HIV infection was estimated as the mid-timepoint between last HIV-seronegative and first HIV-seropositive sample. Data from an additional 2984 HIV-uninfected individuals from the same population were analysed to assess the effect of natural mortality on HIV-related mortality.

FINDINGS

872 participants tested HIV positive during the 23-year study period: 408 were infected with HIV-1 (183 infected before and 225 infected after enrolment) and 464 were infected with HIV-2 (377 before and 87 after enrolment). The median time from HIV infection to development of AIDS was 6·2 years (95% CI 5·4-7·1) for HIV-1 infection and 14·3 years (10·7-18·0) for HIV-2 infection (p<0·0001). The median survival time after HIV infection was 8·2 years (95% CI 7·5-8·9) for HIV-1 infection and 15·6 years (12·0-19·2) for HIV-2 infection (p<0·0001). Individuals who were infected with HIV-1 or HIV-2 before enrolment showed similar results. Comparison with uninfected individuals indicated limited confounding contribution from natural mortality. Mean CD4 percentages were higher in individuals with HIV-2 than in those with HIV-1 during early infection (28·0% [SE 1·3] vs 22·3% [1·7]; p=0·00094) and declined at a slower rate (0·4% [0·2] vs 0·9% [0·2] per year; p=0·028). HIV-2-infected individuals developed clinical AIDS at higher mean CD4 percentages (18·2%, IQR 7·2-25·4) than HIV-1-infected individuals (8·2%, 3·0-13·8; p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Our results show that both HIV-1-infected and HIV-2-infected individuals have a high probability of developing and dying from AIDS without antiretroviral treatment.

FUNDING

Swedish International Development Agency, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Society of Medical Research, Medical Faculty at Lund University, and Region Skåne Research and Development.