School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, No. 29 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, People's Republic of China.
Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, Beijing, 100083, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Jan;26(1):312-325. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-3332-0. Epub 2018 Nov 5.
Based on the China's 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012 multiregional input-output model, this study calculates China's provincial CO emissions from investment demand and interprovincial transfer of CO emissions caused by investment demand. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) From 1997 to 2012, the CO emissions from China's investment demand have seen rapid growth-the CO emissions from investment demand has increased by 4.52 times, and the per capita CO emissions caused by investment demand has increased by 4.13 times. Investment demand is an important driver of growth of China's CO emissions. The proportion of CO emissions from investment demand in CO emissions from China's three final demands rose from 37.72% in 1997 to 50.68% in 2012. (2) The CO emissions from investment demand are relatively large in provinces which have large-scale industries. Affected by investment-driven economic growth, CO emissions from investment demand in central, western, and northeastern provinces have increased more rapidly. (3) Large amounts of CO are emitted in the less-developed central and western provinces to meet the investment demand of the developed eastern provinces. As China's economy enters the "new normal," economic growth is shifting from investment-driven to consumption-driven, and the growth of CO emissions from investment demand will slow down.
基于中国 1997、2002、2007 和 2012 年多区域投入产出模型,本研究计算了中国因投资需求而产生的省级 CO2 排放和因投资需求导致的省际 CO2 排放转移。研究结果如下:(1)1997 年至 2012 年,中国投资需求的 CO2 排放量呈快速增长态势——投资需求的 CO2 排放量增长了 4.52 倍,投资需求导致的人均 CO2 排放量增长了 4.13 倍。投资需求是中国 CO2 排放增长的重要驱动因素。投资需求产生的 CO2 排放量占中国最终需求中 CO2 排放的比例从 1997 年的 37.72%上升到 2012 年的 50.68%。(2)投资需求产生的 CO2 排放量在大规模工业的省份相对较大。受投资驱动型经济增长的影响,中部、西部和东北地区投资需求产生的 CO2 排放量增长更快。(3)欠发达的中部和西部地区排放大量的 CO2 来满足发达东部省份的投资需求。随着中国经济进入“新常态”,经济增长正从投资驱动型向消费驱动型转变,投资需求产生的 CO2 排放增长将放缓。