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使用基于分层的应答驱动和随机抽样方法估计乌克兰 5 个城市注射毒品人群中的 HIV 和 HCV 流行率。

Estimating HIV and HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs in 5 Ukrainian cities using stratification-based respondent driven and random sampling.

机构信息

Yale University School of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, AIDS Program, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA.

Yale University School of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, AIDS Program, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA.

出版信息

Int J Drug Policy. 2019 May;67:91-101. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2018.09.010. Epub 2018 Nov 29.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Ukraine, a country of 45.5 million people, has one of the most volatile HIV and HCV epidemics in the world. In this paper, we estimate the prevalence of HIV and HCV among PWID in five Ukrainian cities.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2014-2015, based on stratified hybrid sampling with random and respondent driven sampling in five cities: Kyiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro and Lviv. Using data on HIV and HCV antibody testing from 1613 respondents, we evaluate selection bias in the sampling methods by analyzing spatial and network patterns of sampling processes. We develop and apply inverse probability weights in order to estimate the HIV and HCV prevalence in each city, as well as in the overall sample.

FINDINGS

The aggregate HIV prevalence for the five cities is 35.1% (95% CI: 29.5%-38.5%) but this varied considerably by city: in Kyiv the HIV prevalence is 26.6% (95% CI: 20.3.8%-33.4%), in Odesa - 38.2% (95% CI: 29.8% and 47.1%), in Mykolaiv - 42.0% (95% CI: 34.3%-49.2%), in Dnipro - 58.8% (95% CI: 52.2%-65.8%), and in Lviv 24.6% (95% CI: 18.8%-30.8%). The aggregate HCV prevalence estimate for the five cities is 58.6% (95% CI: 54.9%-61.7%). The highest HCV prevalence is estimated in Kyiv - 84.8% (95% CI: 78.5%-90.1%). HCV prevalence in Odesa is the lowest and estimated to be 36.5% (95% CI: 29.5%-45.1%), in Mykolaiv - 49.1% (95% CI: 41.5%-57.0%), in Dnipro - 56.1% (95% CI: 50.3%-63.4%) and in Lviv 38.5% (95% CI: 31.8%-45.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Monitoring behavioral and health outcomes of PWID on a regular basis is necessary for determining prevention and treatment priorities for HIV and HCV infections in Ukraine and elsewhere. The heterogeneity of the local epidemics provides insights into the best prevention and treatment strategies to be deployed in low-resource settings.

摘要

背景

乌克兰拥有 4550 万人口,是世界上 HIV 和 HCV 流行最不稳定的国家之一。本文评估了乌克兰五个城市中注射吸毒者(PWID)中的 HIV 和 HCV 流行率。

方法

2014 年至 2015 年期间,在五个城市(基辅、敖德萨、尼古拉耶夫、第聂伯罗和利沃夫)进行了一项基于分层混合抽样的横断面研究,采用随机和应答者驱动抽样。利用 1613 名受访者的 HIV 和 HCV 抗体检测数据,我们通过分析采样过程的空间和网络模式,评估了采样方法中的选择偏差。我们开发并应用了逆概率权重,以估计每个城市以及总体样本中的 HIV 和 HCV 流行率。

结果

五个城市的 HIV 总流行率为 35.1%(95%CI:29.5%-38.5%),但城市间差异很大:基辅的 HIV 流行率为 26.6%(95%CI:20.3.8%-33.4%),敖德萨为 38.2%(95%CI:29.8%和 47.1%),尼古拉耶夫为 42.0%(95%CI:34.3%-49.2%),第聂伯罗为 58.8%(95%CI:52.2%-65.8%),利沃夫为 24.6%(95%CI:18.8%-30.8%)。五个城市 HCV 的总流行率估计为 58.6%(95%CI:54.9%-61.7%)。基辅的 HCV 流行率最高,估计为 84.8%(95%CI:78.5%-90.1%)。敖德萨的 HCV 流行率最低,估计为 36.5%(95%CI:29.5%-45.1%),尼古拉耶夫为 49.1%(95%CI:41.5%-57.0%),第聂伯罗为 56.1%(95%CI:50.3%-63.4%),利沃夫为 38.5%(95%CI:31.8%-45.0%)。

结论

定期监测注射吸毒者的行为和健康结果,是确定乌克兰和其他地区 HIV 和 HCV 感染预防和治疗重点的必要条件。地方流行的异质性为在资源匮乏的环境中部署最佳预防和治疗策略提供了思路。

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