Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology, Geelong, VIC, Australia.
CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2019 Jan;34(1):57-68. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.10.006. Epub 2018 Dec 1.
Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them. The capacity of scenarios and models to address complexity makes them invaluable for developing meaningful targets and policy, and improving conservation outcomes.
全球生物多样性目标对全球自然保护具有深远的影响。情景和模型对于确保这些目标具有良好的基础和实施具有未兑现的承诺；在这里，我们回顾了它们如何以及应该为生物多样性战略计划的爱知目标及其重新制定提供信息。它们提供了两个明显的好处：为目标的措辞和定量要素提供科学依据；并通过考虑目标之间的相互作用以及实现这些目标所需的行动，确定协同作用和权衡取舍。情景和模型解决复杂性的能力使它们对于制定有意义的目标和政策以及改善保护结果非常宝贵。
