Buschke Falko T
Centre for Environmental Management University of the Free State Bloemfontein South Africa.
Animal Ecology, Global Change and Sustainable Development KU Leuven Leuven Belgium.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Sep 14;11(20):13678-13683. doi: 10.1002/ece3.8097. eCollection 2021 Oct.
In October, nations of the world will begin negotiations for the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity. An influential ambition is "bending the curve of biodiversity loss," which aims to reverse the decline of global biodiversity indicators. A second relevant, yet less prominent, milestone is the 20th anniversary of the publication of . Here, I apply neutral theory to show how global biodiversity indicators for population size () and extinction threat () decline under neutral ecological drift. This demonstrates that declining indicators are not solely caused by deterministic species-specific or geographical patterns of biodiversity loss. Instead, indicators are sensitive to nondirectional stochasticity. Thus, "bending the curve" could be assessed relative to a counterfactual based on neutral theory, rather than static baselines. If used correctly, the 20-year legacy of neutral theory can be extended to make a valuable contribution to the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.
10月，世界各国将根据《生物多样性公约》开始就2020年后全球生物多样性框架进行谈判。一个有影响力的目标是“扭转生物多样性丧失曲线”，旨在扭转全球生物多样性指标的下降趋势。另一个相关但不太突出的里程碑是《[具体文献名称]》发表20周年。在此，我应用中性理论来展示在中性生态漂变下，种群大小（）和灭绝威胁（）的全球生物多样性指标是如何下降的。这表明指标下降并非仅仅由确定性的物种特异性或生物多样性丧失的地理模式导致。相反，指标对无方向性的随机性很敏感。因此，“扭转曲线”可以相对于基于中性理论的反事实情况进行评估，而不是基于静态基线。如果使用得当，中性理论20年的遗产可以得到扩展，为2020年后全球生物多样性框架做出有价值的贡献。
