Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637;
Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Dec 26;115(52):13222-13227. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1805327115. Epub 2018 Dec 10.
A world where information is abundant promises unprecedented opportunities for information exchange. Seven studies suggest these opportunities work better in theory than in practice: People fail to anticipate how quickly minds change, believing that they and others will evaluate more evidence before making up their minds than they and others actually do. From evaluating peers, marriage prospects, and political candidates to evaluating novel foods, goods, and services, people consume far less information than expected before deeming things good or bad. Accordingly, people acquire and share too much information in impression-formation contexts: People overvalue long-term trials, overpay for decision aids, and overwork to impress others, neglecting the speed at which conclusions will form. In today's information age, people may intuitively believe that exchanging ever-more information will foster better-informed opinions and perspectives-but much of this information may be lost on minds long made up.
一个信息丰富的世界为信息交流带来了前所未有的机会。有七项研究表明,这些机会在理论上比实践中效果更好:人们无法预测思维变化的速度,他们和其他人在下定决心之前,会认为自己和其他人会比实际情况评估更多的证据。从评估同龄人、婚姻对象和政治候选人,到评估新食品、商品和服务,人们在认为好坏之前,实际消费的信息远远少于预期。因此,人们在形成印象的情况下获取和分享过多的信息:人们高估长期试用,为决策辅助支付过高的费用,为给他人留下深刻印象而过度工作,忽略了结论形成的速度。在当今的信息时代,人们可能直观地认为,交流越来越多的信息将促进更明智的意见和观点——但很多信息可能会被那些已经形成的观点所忽略。