Willis Derek W, Hamon Nick
Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA.
IVCC, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA, UK.
Gates Open Res. 2018 Nov 9;2:33. doi: 10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2. eCollection 2018.
: Ambitious goals have been set to eradicate malaria by the year 2040. Given the high poverty levels and the intense levels of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa, suppressing malaria in rural agricultural communities in these regions will be one of the greatest challenges to achieving malaria eradication. This study has two objectives. The first is to estimate how eradicating malaria by 2040 would affect agricultural households in sub-Saharan Africa. The second is to identify where additional research is needed to develop better estimates of how eradicating malaria by 2040 would affect those households. : Using agricultural census data and malaria morbidity data, we developed estimates of the number of malaria cases in 2018 among agricultural households with fewer than 10 hectares of land for 35 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. By combining these estimates with additional evidence from the literature, we analyzed how achieving malaria eradication by 2040 would affect indicators related to four Sustainable Development Goals: health, poverty, education and gender equality. : Our analysis found that achieving malaria eradication by 2040 would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. Eradicating malaria by 2040 would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days. : This article analyzes the impact of eradicating malaria among agricultural households in sub-Saharan Africa using indicators related to four of the Sustainable Development Goals. Enhanced data collection efforts related to these four indicators would facilitate more rigorous estimates of how eradicating malaria would affect these indicators over the next two decades.
已设定了到2040年根除疟疾的宏伟目标。鉴于撒哈拉以南非洲地区的高贫困水平和高强度的疟疾传播，在这些地区的农村农业社区抑制疟疾将是实现疟疾根除的最大挑战之一。本研究有两个目标。第一个目标是估计到2040年根除疟疾将如何影响撒哈拉以南非洲的农业家庭。第二个目标是确定需要在哪些方面进行更多研究，以更好地估计到2040年根除疟疾将如何影响这些家庭。
利用农业普查数据和疟疾发病率数据，我们对撒哈拉以南非洲35个国家中土地面积少于10公顷的农业家庭在2018年的疟疾病例数进行了估计。通过将这些估计与文献中的其他证据相结合，我们分析了到2040年实现疟疾根除将如何影响与四个可持续发展目标相关的指标：健康、贫困、教育和性别平等。
我们的分析发现，到2040年实现疟疾根除将预防约8.41亿例疟疾病例，从而使农业家庭的工作日损失数减少约32亿天。到2040年根除疟疾还将使儿童上学天数增加15亿天，同时使妇女照顾疟疾病例的天数减少约11亿天。
本文使用与四个可持续发展目标相关的指标，分析了在撒哈拉以南非洲的农业家庭中根除疟疾的影响。加强与这四个指标相关的数据收集工作，将有助于更精确地估计在未来二十年根除疟疾将如何影响这些指标。
