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沟通如何让选民做出更差的选择。

How Communication Can Make Voters Choose Less Well.

机构信息

Department of Psychological Sciences, Birkbeck, University of London.

Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, Munich.

出版信息

Top Cogn Sci. 2019 Jan;11(1):194-206. doi: 10.1111/tops.12401. Epub 2018 Dec 25.

Abstract

With the advent of social media, the last decade has seen profound changes to the way people receive information. This has fueled a debate about the ways (if any) changes to the nature of our information networks might be affecting voters' beliefs about the world, voting results, and, ultimately, democracy. At the same time, much discussion in the public arena in recent years has concerned the notion that ill-informed voters have been voting against their own self-interest. The research reported here brings these two strands together: simulations involving agent-based models, interpreted through the formal framework of Condorcet's (1785) jury theorem, demonstrate how changes to information networks may make voter error more likely, even though individual competence has largely remained unchanged.

摘要

随着社交媒体的出现,过去十年人们获取信息的方式发生了深刻的变化。这引发了一场关于我们的信息网络的性质变化是否在影响选民对世界、投票结果以及最终民主的看法的辩论。与此同时,近年来公众领域的许多讨论都集中在这样一种观点上,即信息不足的选民投票违背了自身利益。这里报告的研究将这两个方面结合在一起:通过考尔德科特(1785 年)陪审团定理的形式框架进行解释的基于代理的模型模拟表明,即使个人能力在很大程度上保持不变,信息网络的变化也可能使选民犯错的可能性更大。

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