MUSE - Science Museum, Vertebrate Zoology Section, Corso del Lavoro e della Scienza 3, Trento, 38122, Italy.
Animal Ecology and Demography Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marqués 21, Esporles, Mallorca, 07190, Spain.
Ecology. 2019 Mar;100(3):e02595. doi: 10.1002/ecy.2595. Epub 2019 Jan 30.
The relative role of density-dependent and density-independent variation in vital rates and population size remains largely unsolved. Despite its importance to the theory and application of population ecology, and to conservation biology, quantifying the role and strength of density dependence is particularly challenging. We present a hierarchical formulation of the temporal symmetry approach, also known as the Pradel model, that permits estimation of the strength of density dependence from capture-mark-reencounter data. A measure of relative population size is built in the model and serves to detect density dependence directly on population growth rate. The model is also extended to account for temporal random variability in demographic rates, allowing estimation of the temporal variance of population growth rate unexplained by density dependence. We thus present a model-based approach that enable to test and quantify the effect of density-dependent and density-independent factors affecting population fluctuations in a single modeling framework. More generally, we use this modeling framework along with simulated and empirical data to show the value of including density dependence when modeling individual encounter data without the need for auxiliary data.
密度制约和密度无关因素对生命率和种群大小的相对作用在很大程度上仍未得到解决。尽管它对种群生态学的理论和应用以及保护生物学都很重要，但量化密度制约的作用和强度特别具有挑战性。我们提出了一种时间对称性方法（也称为 Pradel 模型）的层次结构表述，该方法允许从捕获-标记-重捕获数据中估计密度制约的强度。模型中构建了一个相对种群大小的度量标准，用于直接检测种群增长率上的密度制约。该模型还扩展到考虑人口动态率的时间随机变异性，从而可以估计无法用密度制约解释的种群增长率的时间方差。因此，我们提出了一种基于模型的方法，可以在单个建模框架中测试和量化影响种群波动的密度依赖和密度无关因素的影响。更一般地说，我们使用这种建模框架以及模拟和经验数据来表明，在没有辅助数据的情况下，对个体遭遇数据进行建模时，包含密度制约的价值。
