Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, UK.
School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Glob Chang Biol. 2019 Feb;25(2):390-403. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14341. Epub 2019 Jan 16.
Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present-day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.
阿拉比卡咖啡（Coffea arabica）是许多热带国家的主要作物，全球每年的出口价值超过 130 亿美元。野生阿拉比卡咖啡对全球咖啡行业至关重要，对埃塞俄比亚来说尤为重要，因为它是可收获收入和种植资源的来源。已发表的研究表明，气候变化预计将对埃塞俄比亚和南苏丹本土阿拉比卡咖啡目前适宜生长的地区产生实质性负面影响。在这里，我们使用基于多个通用环流模型（GCM）、排放情景和迁移情景的物种的所有可用未来预测，来预测野生阿拉比卡咖啡的分布范围（EOO）、生境面积（AOO）和种群数量的变化。在气候变化的情况下，我们的结果表明，到 2088 年，种群数量可能减少 50%或更多（一些模型显示超过 80%）。在许多情况下，EOO 和 AOO 预计将下降约 30%。此外，与近期（2038 年）相比，目前的模型显示 EOO 减少了 40%以上（少数情况超过 50%），尽管由于偏远地区的存在，EOO 应谨慎处理。当将这些指标应用于灭绝风险时，我们表明世代长度的确定至关重要。当应用国际自然保护联盟濒危物种红色名录（IUCN 红色名录）标准时，即使世代长度非常保守，即 21 年，如果不采取干预措施，野生阿拉比卡咖啡也将被评估为濒危物种（处于濒危类别），这是基于广泛的气候变化预测。重要的是，如果我们不将气候变化纳入我们的评估，那么当应用 IUCN 红色名录标准时，阿拉比卡咖啡将被评估为最不关注的物种（未受到威胁）。
