Programa Pós-graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
PeerJ. 2023 Sep 19;11:e15887. doi: 10.7717/peerj.15887. eCollection 2023.
Carnivore mammals are animals vulnerable to human interference, such as climate change and deforestation. Their distribution and persistence are affected by such impacts, mainly in tropical regions such as the Amazon. Due to the importance of carnivores in the maintenance and functioning of the ecosystem, they are extremely important animals for conservation. We evaluated the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of carnivores in the Amazon using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Do we seek to answer the following questions: (1) What is the effect of climate change on the distribution of carnivores in the Amazon? (2) Will carnivore species lose or gain representation within the Protected Areas (PAs) of the Amazon in the future?
We evaluated the distribution area of 16 species of carnivores mammals in the Amazon, based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the year 2070. For the construction of the SDMs we used bioclimatic and vegetation cover variables (land type). Based on these models, we calculated the area loss and climate suitability of the species, as well as the effectiveness of the protected areas inserted in the Amazon. We estimated the effectiveness of PAs on the individual persistence of carnivores in the future, for this, we used the SDMs to perform the gap analysis. Finally, we analyze the effectiveness of PAs in protecting taxonomic richness in future scenarios.
The SDMs showed satisfactory predictive performance, with Jaccard values above 0.85 and AUC above 0.91 for all species. In the present and for the future climate scenarios, we observe a reduction of potencial distribution in both future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), where five species will be negatively affected by climate change in the RCP 4.5 future scenario and eight in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The remaining species stay stable in terms of total area. All species in the study showed a loss of climatic suitability. Some species lost almost all climatic suitability in the RCP 8.5 scenario. According to the GAP analysis, all species are protected within the PAs both in the current scenario and in both future climate scenarios. From the null models, we found that in all climate scenarios, the PAs are not efficient in protecting species richness.
肉食性哺乳动物是易受人类干扰的动物，例如气候变化和森林砍伐。它们的分布和生存受到这些影响的影响，主要在亚马逊等热带地区。由于肉食动物在维持和发挥生态系统功能方面的重要性，它们是极其重要的保护动物。我们使用物种分布模型（SDM）评估了气候变化对亚马逊地区肉食动物地理分布的影响。我们是否试图回答以下问题：（1）气候变化对亚马逊肉食动物分布的影响是什么？（2）未来亚马逊保护区（PA）内的肉食物种会失去或获得代表权吗？
我们根据 2070 年未来气候情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）评估了亚马逊地区 16 种肉食性哺乳动物的分布区域。对于 SDM 的构建，我们使用了生物气候和植被覆盖变量（土地类型）。基于这些模型，我们计算了物种的面积损失和气候适宜性，以及插入亚马逊地区的保护区的有效性。我们估计了未来 PAs 对个体肉食动物生存的保护效果，为此，我们使用 SDM 进行了差距分析。最后，我们分析了 PAs 在未来情景下保护分类丰富度的有效性。
SDM 表现出令人满意的预测性能，所有物种的 Jaccard 值均高于 0.85，AUC 均高于 0.91。在当前和未来气候情景下，我们观察到两种未来情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）下潜在分布面积减少，其中 5 种物种将受到 RCP4.5 未来情景下气候变化的负面影响，8 种物种将受到 RCP8.5 情景下气候变化的负面影响。其余物种的总面积保持稳定。研究中的所有物种的气候适宜性均下降。一些物种在 RCP8.5 情景下几乎失去了所有的气候适宜性。根据 GAP 分析，在当前情景和两种未来气候情景下，所有物种都受到保护区的保护。从零模型中，我们发现，在所有气候情景下，保护区在保护物种丰富度方面都不是有效的。
